2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_The_Gambia_Request_for_Disbursement_Under_the_Rapid_Credit_Facility_and_Proposal_for_a_Staff_83页_1mb

The Gambia IMF Country Report Summary

Core Content

The IMF Country Report No. 17/179 outlines the Gambia's request for disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and the proposed Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). The report highlights the urgent balance of payments (BOP) needs and the need for strong policy implementation to restore macroeconomic stability and reduce poverty.

Main Points

1. IMF Disbursement and Program Approval

• The IMF Executive Board approved US$16.1 million (SDR11,662,500) under the RCF, equivalent to 18.75 percent of The Gambia's quota.
• The RCF disbursement will help address the urgent BOP needs caused by external shocks and past economic mismanagement.
• A one-year SMP was also approved to guide policy implementation, catalyze donor support, and build a track record for future IMF engagement.

2. Economic Context and Shocks

• The Gambia is at a historical turning point with the transition to a democratically elected government.
• The new government inherited a dire economic situation with urgent BOP needs and low international reserves.
• Key shocks include:
  • A bad agricultural season, halving the groundnut cash crop harvest.
  • Political turmoil after the December 2016 elections, reducing tourism receipts by about one third in the first quarter of 2017.
  • Higher fuel and commodity prices, increasing BOP pressure.
• The combined BOP impact of these shocks in 2017 is estimated at $31 million (3 percent of GDP).

3. Fiscal Situation and Challenges

• Domestic revenue collection fell from 17.6 percent of GDP in 2015 to 16.7 percent in 2016, due to foreign exchange scarcity and low economic activity.
• Total public debt reached 120 percent of GDP in 2016, up from 105 percent in 2015, driven by domestic debt.
• Debt service on domestic debt absorbed 42 percent of government revenue in 2016.
• Net domestic borrowing (NDB) was at 11.4 percent of GDP in 2016 and is to be reduced to 1 percent of GDP starting in 2017.
• The authorities aim to reduce domestic borrowing and interest costs through donor assistance and RCF onlending.

4. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

• The Central Bank of The Gambia (CBG) kept its policy rate at 23 percent throughout 2016, but fiscal dominance weakened its signaling function.
• The CBG introduced foreign exchange directives in November 2016, requiring commercial banks to surrender 15 percent of their foreign exchange purchases.
• The dalasi stabilized within a range of 43-48 dalasi per dollar.
• In May 2017, the 15 percent surrender requirement was rescinded, and the reference rate was put under review.

5. Debt Sustainability and External Support

• The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) indicates external debt distress and unsustainable public debt.
• The authorities have received assurances of highly concessional support from some major official bilateral creditors.
• Multilateral development banks have also committed to additional support.
• The Gambia is expected to reduce debt vulnerabilities through a coordinated approach with other creditors and donor financing.

6. Policy Commitments and Reforms

• The authorities are committed to fiscal consolidation, SOE reforms, and monetary policy adjustments.
• They plan to:
  • Conduct special audits of state-owned enterprises to uncover past fraud and embezzlement.
  • Restructure domestic debt of the National Water and Electricity Company (NAWEC).
  • Reduce expenditures and increase non-tax revenue.
  • Strengthen SOE oversight and civil service reform.

7. Growth Outlook and Structural Reforms

• 2017 GDP growth is expected to rise slightly to 3 percent.
• Long-term growth is projected to increase due to:
  • Restoration of macroeconomic stability.
  • Investment in tourism, agriculture, and trade.
  • Improved relations with Senegal and regional integration.
  • Enhanced electricity supply and focus on drought-resistant crops.
• Corruption has been identified as a major constraint on growth and has been linked to reduced public trust, weak state capacity, and distorted policies.
• The Corruption Perception Index (CPI) ranked The Gambia 145 out of 176 countries in 2016, indicating high levels of corruption.
• A 5-point increase in CPI over 2017–2022 is expected to boost annual growth by 2.5 percentage points by 2022.

Key Information

• RCF Disbursement: US$16.1 million (SDR11,662,500) to address urgent BOP needs.
• SMP: A one-year program to guide policy implementation and build a track record for future IMF engagement.
• BOP Impact: $31 million (3 percent of GDP) in 2017, due to agricultural shocks, political turmoil, and higher commodity prices.
• Public Debt: Reached 120 percent of GDP in 2016, with 42 percent of government revenue used for debt service.
• NDB Target: Reduced to 1 percent of GDP in 2017, with donor support expected to cover 7.2 percent of GDP.
• Corruption: A major challenge affecting growth, fiscal sustainability, and governance. A 5-point CPI improvement is projected to boost growth by 2.5 percentage points.
• SOE Reforms: Special audits and restructuring of domestic debt are planned to reduce fiscal shocks.
• Exchange Rate: Stabilized at 43-48 dalasi per dollar, with the 15 percent surrender requirement rescinded in May 2017.

Conclusion

The Gambia faces significant economic and political challenges, but the new government has committed to fiscal consolidation, SOE reforms, and monetary policy adjustments. The IMF disbursement under the RCF and the SMP are critical in addressing the urgent BOP needs and supporting the transition to a more stable and inclusive economy. Sustained donor support and policy implementation will be essential to ensure debt sustainability and long-term growth.