战略与国际研究中心-Saudi-Arabia-and-the-Arab--Frontline--States_255页_3mb

报告摘要

Summary of US-Iranian Military Competition: The Gulf Military Balance

Core Content

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the military and security competition between the United States and Iran, focusing on both conventional and asymmetric dimensions. It outlines the evolving military capabilities of Iran and its Gulf neighbors, as well as the US and its allies, in the context of rising tensions over Iran's nuclear program and its strategic ambitions in the region.

Main Points

1. The Nature of US-Iranian Military Competition

Conventional and Asymmetric Dimensions: The report emphasizes that Iran has increasingly relied on asymmetric warfare to offset its conventional military weaknesses.
Risk of Confrontation: With diplomatic efforts failing, the possibility of a military clash in the Gulf has grown, though it is not inevitable.
Strategic Objectives: Iran aims to deter US and Gulf Arab forces, deny access to the Gulf, threaten commercial shipping, and target critical infrastructure in Gulf states.
Broader Context: The competition extends beyond the Gulf, involving proxy states, cyber warfare, and the Arabian Peninsula, the Levant, and the Indian Ocean.

2. Iran's Military Strategy and Capabilities

Conventional Forces: Iran's conventional military is described as weak, aging, and lacking in modern capabilities.
Asymmetric Warfare: Iran has developed capabilities in drone warfare, cyber operations, and naval asymmetric tactics such as mine warfare, swarming, and small-boat attacks.
Proxy Networks: Iran uses groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Al Quds Force to project influence and conduct attacks in neighboring regions.
Nuclear and Missile Programs: Iran's nuclear program has been a focal point of competition. It has made significant progress in uranium enrichment and missile technology, raising concerns about potential nuclear weapon development.

3. US and Gulf Arab Military Posture

US Military Role: The US maintains a strong military presence in the Gulf, providing advanced weapons and training to its allies.
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) States: The report highlights the military build-up of GCC states, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain, which are equipped with modern systems like the Patriot and THAAD.
Military Spending: The US has significantly increased its foreign military sales and training programs in the region, especially after the 2012 strategic pivot to the Middle East and Asia.

4. Key Uncertainties

Nuclear and Missile Capabilities: The timeline for Iran's nuclear breakout and the effectiveness of its missile programs remain uncertain.
Regime Stability: The potential for regime change or internal instability could affect Iran's military posture and strategic choices.
US Policy and Deterrence: The US continues to develop military options to counter Iran, including missile defense systems and alliances with Israel and Gulf states.

Key Information

Iran's Asymmetric Forces

Al Quds Force: A paramilitary unit of the IRGC involved in supporting proxy groups in the region.
Drone and UAV Capabilities: Iran has developed and deployed various unmanned aerial vehicles, including UCAVs, to conduct surveillance and attacks.
Cyber Warfare: Iran has been actively developing cyber capabilities to disrupt US and Gulf military systems.

Iran's Naval Asymmetric Strategy

Midget Submarines and SDVs: Iran uses small submarines and swimmers to conduct attacks on shipping lanes.
Mine Warfare: Iran has expanded its use of naval mines to disrupt maritime traffic.
Anti-Ship Missiles: Iran has developed a range of anti-ship missile systems to challenge US naval dominance.

Iran's Nuclear and Missile Programs

Nuclear Ambitions: Iran has pursued a nuclear program since the 1960s, and by 2011, had the basic technology for fissile weapons.
Breakout Capacity: Iran's enrichment program has reached 20% uranium, which is 90% of the level needed for weapons-grade material.
Missile Capabilities: Iran has developed a variety of ballistic missiles capable of targeting US allies and bases in the region.

US and Gulf Responses

Military Aid and Training: The US has significantly increased its military sales and training programs to the GCC states, including advanced aircraft, tanks, and missile defense systems.
Alliances: The US has strengthened its alliances with Israel, the Gulf states, and European partners like Britain and France.
Preventive Strikes: The US and Israel have considered preventive strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities, which could trigger a major conflict in the Gulf.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while a direct military confrontation between the US and Iran is not certain, the growing conventional and asymmetric military capabilities of Iran, combined with its nuclear ambitions, pose a significant risk to regional stability. The US and its Gulf allies are actively countering these threats through military build-up, technology transfer, and strategic alliances. The competition is not only a military one but also a broader geopolitical struggle involving economic, energy, and diplomatic dimensions.

Structure of the Report

Introduction to the Tenth Edition: Discusses the growing risks of military conflict due to Iran's nuclear ambitions and asymmetric capabilities.
Historical Background: Reviews the history of US-Iranian military competition from 1979 to the present.
Current Patterns in Military Competition: Details the current military balance, including the roles of the US, Iran, and the GCC.
Key Uncertainties: Highlights the uncertainties surrounding Iran's nuclear and missile programs and its regime stability.
Conventional Military Forces: Analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of US, GCC, and Iranian conventional forces.
Asymmetric Forces: Explores Iran's asymmetric capabilities, including drones, cyber warfare, and naval tactics.
Implications for US Policy: Outlines the US response to the Iranian threat, including military and diplomatic measures.

Figures and Data

Figure III.1: Summary chronology of US-Iranian military competition (2000-2012).
Figure III.2: Assessment of the full range of Iranian competition and threats.
Figure III.3: The US military role in the Gulf in 2012.
Figure III.4: Comparative military spending.
Figure III.5: Comparative arms transfers.
Figure III.6: US arms transfers and military education as a percentage of global efforts.
Figure III.7: Total Gulf holdings of combat aircraft.
Figure III.8: Comparative modern Iranian and Gulf air forces.
Figure III.9: Key Iranian capabilities for asymmetric warfare.
Figure III.10: Probable Iranian surface-to-air missile coverage.
Figure III.11: Comparative Iranian and Gulf major naval forces.
Figure III.12: Iranian smaller naval ships by category.
Figure III.13: Gulf warships with anti-ship missiles.
Figure III.14: Gulf attack, anti-ship, and ASW helicopters.
Figure III.15: Comparative Iranian and Gulf land forces.
Figure III.16: Land force combat units by country in 2012.
Figure III.17: Iranian short and medium-range artillery rockets.
Figure III.18: Shift in the balance: Iran vs. Iraq in 2003 and 2012.
Figure III.19: Key elements of the IRGC.
Figure III.20: Iranian UAVs and UCAVs.
Figure III.21: The impact of the IRGC naval guards.
Figure III.22: Iranian naval capabilities for asymmetric warfare.
Figure III.23: Iranian capabilities for mine warfare.
Figure III.24: Iranian amphibious warfare capabilities.
Figure III.25: The Iranian Al Quds Force.
Figure III.26: Iran and Hezbollah.
Figure III.27: Iran and Hamas.
Figure III.28: Estimated US dependence on petroleum imports (2010-2040).
Figure III.29: Growing strategic importance of Gulf petroleum.
Figure III.30: US arms sales to the GCC states and Iraq (2002-2012).
Figure III.31: Selected US and non-US arms sales in the Gulf.

This report serves as a comprehensive overview of the evolving military balance in the Gulf, emphasizing the strategic and tactical implications of US-Iranian competition.

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