20161006-辉立证券-Thaicom__3QFY16_norm_profit_seen_down_52__y-y_hit_lower_utilization_rates_and_additional_expenses_from_THCOM8_11页_861kb
报告摘要
Thaicom Summary
核心内容
Thaicom PCL (THCOM) is a technology and information & communication technology company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). The company provides satellite transponder leasing and related services, internet and media services, and telephone services in Lao PDR. It operates five satellites, including THCOM4 (a broadband satellite) and THCOM5-8 (conventional satellites).
主要观点
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3QFY16盈利预测：Thaicom is expected to report a 51% year-over-year increase in net profit to Bt402mn due to a Bt454mn FX gain from its US dollar-denominated loans, reversing a Bt55mn FX loss in 3QFY15. However, normal profit is projected to decline by 52% year-over-year to Bt347mn due to lower transponder utilization rates and additional expenses from THCOM8.
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收入预测：For 3QFY16, total revenue is expected to drop by 12% year-over-year to Bt2,774mn, primarily due to:
- A 5% decrease in revenue from THCOM4 (its broadband satellite business) as demand from Antrix in India fails to offset a drop in bandwidth usage from NBN in Australia.
- A 19% decrease in revenue from the conventional satellite business (THCOM5-6) due to demand from Forever Group in Myanmar not fully compensating for the termination of CTH's pay TV contract.
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成本与利润压力：Operating and finance costs are expected to increase after the launch of THCOM8. Gross profit margins are forecasted to decrease to 42.0% in 3QFY16 from 35.4% in 3QFY15 due to increased depreciation and amortization charges. Finance costs are also expected to rise by 16% year-over-year to Bt99mn.
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评级与目标价：Despite the profit and target price cuts, the company is rated 'BUY' with a target price of Bt27/share. This is due to the stock being priced near its book value and new client additions in Asia potentially boosting future earnings.
关键信息
公司数据 (截至2016年10月6日)
| 指标 | 数值 (Bt) |
|---|---|
| Closing Price | 20.20 |
| Target Price | 27.00 (+36.93%) |
| O/S Shares (mn) | 1,096 |
| Market Cap. (Btmn) | 22,139 |
| Market Cap. (USDmn) | 636 |
| 52-WK Hi/Lo (Bt) | 32.75/19.7 |
| 3M Average Daily T/O (mn) | 6.15 |
| Par Value | 5.00 |
主要股东 (截至2016年4月7日)
| 股东 | 持股比例 (%) |
|---|---|
| INTUCH | 41.1 |
| STATE STREET BANK EUROPE LIMITED | 7.7 |
| THAI NVDR | 6.0 |
估值方法
- DCF (WACC: 11.4%; terminal growth: 3%)
财务摘要
| 指标 | FY14 | FY15 | FY16E | FY17E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales (Btmn) | 11,893 | 12,453 | 11,770 | 11,280 |
| Net Profit (Btmn) | 1,601 | 2,122 | 2,058 | 1,802 |
| EPS (Bt) | 1.46 | 1.94 | 1.88 | 1.64 |
| P/E (X) | 13.8 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 12.3 |
| BVPS (Bt) | 15.41 | 16.14 | 17.36 | 18.35 |
| P/B (X) | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| DPS (Bt) | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| ROE (%) | 9.87 | 12.28 | 11.21 | 9.21 |
| Debt/Equity (X) | 0.86 | 0.88 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
估值比率
| 指标 | FY14 | FY15 | FY16E | FY17E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (X), adj. | 10.4 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 21.1 |
| P/B (X), adj. | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
营收与利润变化
| 指标 | FY14 | FY15 | FY16E | FY17E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 50.62% | 4.71% | -5.49% | -4.16% |
| EBITDA | 34.48% | 18.50% | -8.17% | -2.44% |
| EBIT | 46.42% | 27.56% | -21.35% | -12.06% |
| Net Income, adj. | -10.85% | 101.94% | -3.03% | -12.43% |
利润率
| 指标 | FY14 | FY15 | FY16E | FY17E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA margin | 44.50% | 50.37% | 48.94% | 49.82% |
| EBIT margin | 22.88% | 27.87% | 23.19% | 21.28% |
| Net Profit Margin | 13.46% | 17.04% | 17.48% | 15.98% |
关键发展
- 2016年：THCOM8 was successfully launched into orbit at 78.5 degrees East longitude, equipped with 24 active Ku-band transponders.
- 2015年：Lao Telecommunications Co (LTC), a joint venture of THCOM, had its telecom concession in Lao PDR extended for another 25 years until FY2046. The transponder utilization rate for THCOM7 reached 100%.
- 2014年：THCOM6 and THCOM7 were launched into orbit, with THCOM6 containing 33 transponders (24 C-band and 9 Ku-band) and THCOM7 consisting of 14 C-band transponders.
风险因素
- 新客户增长不足
- 政府政策和监管变化
- 未来业务增长能力有限
同行比较 (截至2016年10月5日)
| 公司名称 | 市值 (Btmn) | P/E (X) | P/BV (X) | Div Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THCOM TB | 22,139 | 9.6 | 1.3 | 3.2 |
| SESG FP | 385,582 | 22.3 | 2.8 | 6.1 |
| ETL FP | 163,936 | 11.9 | 1.6 | 6.0 |
公司治理与反腐败指标
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Level 5 (Extended): THCOM, BCP, CPN, GYT, PE, PM, PPP, PT, PTT, PTTGC, SAT, SCC
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Level 4 (Certified): DCC, DTC, DRT, EASTW, ECL, EGCO, ERW, FSS, GCAP, HANA, HTC, INTUCH, IRPC, IVL, KBANK, KCE, KGI, KKP, KTB, LANNA, LHBANK, MTI, NKI, PSL, PTG, PTTEP, SABINA, SCB, SNC, SNP, SSC, SSI, STANLY, SVI, SYMC, SYNEX, SYNTEC, TASCO, TFI, THAI, THRE, THREL, TICON, TKT, TLUXE, TMT, TNL, TPCORP, TSTE, TSTH, TTCL, TU, TVI, UOBKH, UREKA, VGI, VNT, WACOAL, WHA, ZMICO
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Level 3 (Established): AAV, AHC, AIT, AKR, ASK, BA, BDMS, BEC, BJC, BUI, CGH, CHG, CHOW, CIG, CITY, CK, CKP, COLOR, CWT, EARTH, EASON, EPG, F&D, FANCY, FIRE, FMT, FORTH, GENCO, GL, GOLD, GEL, GPSC, GRAMMY, HFT, HTECH, IEC, IFS, INET, JUTHA, KASET, KCAR, KKC, KSL, L&E, LALIN, LTX, M, MALEE, MBK, MBKET, MEGA, MK, MPG, MTLS, NCH, NCL, NPP, OCC, OCEAN, PB, PCA, PRINC, OH, ROCK, RPC, S&J, SGP, SIAM, SIS, SKR, SMG, SMIT, SORKON, SUSCO, TAKUNI, TEAM, TF, TIC, TIP, TIPCO, TMC, TMI, TPP, TRT, TRU, TRUE, TSC, TSR, TT, TYCN, UAC, UBIS, UEC, UMI, UP, UPF, UT, UV, VPO, WAVE, WINNER, YUASA
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Level 3B: AAV, AHC, AIT, AKR, ASK, BA, BDMS, BEC, BJC, BUI, CGH, CHG, CHOW, CIG, CITY, CK, CKP, COLOR, CWT, EARTH, EASON, EPG, F&D, FANCY, FIRE, FMT, FORTH, GENCO, GL, GOLD, GEL, GPSC, GRAMMY, HFT, HTECH, IEC, IFS, INET, JUTHA, KASET, KCAR, KKC, KSL, L&E, LALIN, LTX, M, MALEE, MBK, MBKET, MEGA, MK, MPG, MTLS, NCH, NCL, NPP, OCC, OCEAN, PB, PCA, PRINC, OH, ROCK, RPC, S&J, SGP, SIAM, SIS, SKR, SMG, SMIT, SORKON, SUSCO, TAKUNI, TEAM, TF, TIC, TIP, TIPCO, TMC, TMI, TPP, TRT, TRU, TRUE, TSC, TSR, TT, TYCN, UAC, UBIS, UEC, UMI, UP, UPF, UT, UV, VPO, WAVE, WINNER, YUASA
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Level 2 (Declared): 2S, ABDICO, AF, AKP, AMARIN, AMATA, AOT, APCO, AYUD, BEAUTY, BFit, BH, BKD, BLAND, BTNC, CCP, CI, CSR, CSS, EFORL, EPCO, FE, FSMART, GIFT, GLAND, GRAND, GUNKUL, HFT, HTECH, ILINK, ITD, JSP, KDH, KTIS, KTP, LEE, LST, MAJOR, MAX, M-CHAI, MDX, MIDA, ML, MPIC, NC, NEP, NCL, OHTL, PICO, PK, PL, PPM, NWR, PRAKIT, PRECHA, PRIN, PSTC, RAM, RICH, RS, SANKO, SAUCE, SAWAD, SAWANG, SCN, SEAFCO, SHANG, SIRI, SMART, SMM, SOLAR, SPACK, SPG, SF, TAKUNI, TEAM, TF, TIC, TIP, TIPCO, TMC, TMI, TPP, TRT, TRU, TRUE, TSC, TSR, TT, TYCN, UAC, UBIS, UEC, UMI, UP, UPF, UT, UV, VPO, WIIK, WIN, XO
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Level 1 (Committed): ACD, AEONTS, AFC, AIRA, AJ, ALUCON, AMC, AQUA, ARIP, AUCT, BAT-3K, BIG, BJC, BOL, BRR, BSBM, CBG, CCET, CCN, CGD, CMR, CPH, CSC, CSP, CTW, DCON, DRAMCO, DSGT, DTCI, E, EMC, ESSO, FOCUS, FSMART, GIFT, GLAND, GRAND, GUNKUL, HFT, HTECH, ILINK, ITD, JSP, KDH, KTIS, KTP, LEE, LST, MAJOR, MAX, M-CHAI, MDX, MIDA, ML, MPIC, NC, NEP, NCL, OHTL, PICO, PK, PL, PPM, NWR, PRAKIT, PRECHA, PRIN, PSTC, RAM, RICH, RS, SANKO, SAUCE, SAWAD, SAWANG, SCN, SEAFCO, SHANG, SIRI, SMART, SMM, SOLAR, SPACK, SPG, SF, TAKUNI, TEAM, TF, TIC, TIP, TIPCO, TMC, TMI, TPP, TRT, TRU, TRUE, TSC, TSR, TT, TYCN, UAC, UBIS, UEC, UMI, UP, UPF, UT, UV, VPO, WIIK, WIN, XO
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