2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Mauritius_Staff_Report_for_the_2017_Article_IV_Consultation_73页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of the 2017 Article IV Consultation with Mauritius

Core Content

The 2017 Article IV consultation with Mauritius, conducted by the IMF, assessed the country's economic performance and policy framework in the context of its goal to become a high-income economy within the next decade. The consultation focused on several key areas including fiscal policy, monetary and exchange rate policies, external stability, financial sector regulation, and structural reforms. The IMF concluded the consultation on November 21, 2017, and endorsed the staff appraisal without a formal meeting.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Transformation and Growth Strategy

Mauritius has successfully transitioned from a monocrop economy to a diversified services-based middle-income economy with low poverty levels.
The government aims to achieve advanced economy status through an ambitious growth strategy, emphasizing public investment in infrastructure and improving the business environment.
Projected growth for 2017 is 3.9%, with a medium-term growth rate of about 4.0%.
The vision for 2030 includes increasing real GDP growth to 4.5% between 2018-2020 and 4.8% thereafter, with focus on sectors such as manufacturing, ICT, and tourism.

Fiscal Policy

Fiscal space is limited, and fiscal risks are increasing, necessitating fiscal consolidation to preserve debt sustainability.
The primary balance (excluding grants) worsened in FY2016/17, and the overall budget deficit was 3.4% of GDP.
Revenue mobilization efforts are critical, with potential for additional revenues of about 0.8% of GDP through higher tax efficiency.
The staff supports the revised debt anchor but indicates that the current policies may not meet the debt target, suggesting a tighter fiscal stance is needed.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

A tightening of monetary policy is required to address growing inflationary pressures.
The current inflation rate is expected to remain around 4.0% for 2017, with the risk of further increases due to factors like international oil prices and minimum wage policies.
The monetary policy framework needs clarification to enhance policy coherence and resilience to shocks.
The IMF recommends setting a medium-term inflation objective of about 3% and strengthening the operational independence of the central bank.

External Stability

International reserve buffers have improved, but the current account deficit is projected to widen.
A countercyclical policy mix is essential to safeguard external stability.
The real effective exchange rate appreciated, and the authorities should maintain FX intervention to ensure reserve coverage at least at 100% of the adequacy metric.

Financial Sector Policies

The authorities have made progress in modernizing financial sector regulation.
Key priorities include resolving the stock of non-performing loans (NPLs), managing the risks of rapid bank expansion abroad, and ensuring an orderly transition of the Global Business Sector (GBC) to a higher value-added industry.
A formal macroprudential body should be established to enhance financial stability.

Structural Reforms

Further reforms are needed to address competitiveness challenges, particularly in the labor market, education, innovation, and governance.
The government's track record of economic reinvention is seen as a positive sign for the successful implementation of reforms.
The staff encourages the phase-out of the Exchange Rate Support Scheme (ERSS) and the temporary retention of the Multiple Currency Practice (MCP).

Key Indicators (2014–2017)

Indicator	2014 (Prel.)	2015 (Proj.)	2016 (Prel.)	2017 (Proj.)
Real GDP	3.6%	3.5%	3.9%	3.9%
Real GDP per capita	3.4%	3.4%	3.8%	3.5%
GDP per capita (USD)	10,001	9,115	9,613	9,672
GDP deflator	1.7%	0.9%	3.0%	1.0%
Consumer prices (period average)	3.2%	1.3%	1.0%	4.2%
Consumer prices (end of period)	0.2%	1.3%	2.3%	5.0%
Unemployment rate (percent)	7.8%	7.9%	7.2%	6.9%
Exports of goods and services (FOB)	11.4%	-12.1%	-5.4%	3.5%
Tourism receipts	9.5%	-1.0%	9.8%	5.9%
Imports of goods and services (FOB)	7.0%	-13.9%	-4.4%	8.3%
Net foreign assets	15.5%	15.6%	3.8%	5.0%
Domestic credit	-0.3%	6.7%	3.5%	5.5%
Net claims on government	28.8%	-6.2%	29.1%	13.2%
Credit to non-government sector	-2.2%	8.7%	-0.6%	4.8%
Broad money	8.2%	7.8%	8.7%	4.9%
Interest rate (weighted average TBs)	2.2%	2.2%	2.1%	...
Overall consolidated balance (including grants)	-4.3%	-3.6%	-3.4%	-3.3%
Primary balance (excluding grants)	-1.7%	-1.3%	-1.6%	-2.3%
Revenues (incl. grants)	20.6%	21.1%	21.2%	23.9%
Expenditure (excl. net lending)	24.9%	24.7%	24.6%	27.2%
Domestic debt of central government	44.2%	47.4%	49.6%	47.8%
External debt of central government	13.3%	12.8%	10.4%	10.1%
Net international reserves (USD millions)	3,868	4,222	4,934	5,331
Months of imports (FOB)	6.9%	7.8%	8.4%	8.6%

Conclusion

The IMF encourages Mauritius to pursue a coordinated and strategic approach to economic reform, supported by strong and independent institutions. It highlights the importance of addressing fiscal and monetary imbalances, improving financial sector stability, and enhancing competitiveness through structural reforms. The country's progress in these areas is seen as crucial for its transition to a high-income economy.

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