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AIPAC Policy Conference 2010: Challenging Times Summary

Core Content

The AIPAC Policy Conference 2010, held in Washington, D.C., on March 22, 2010, focused on the deteriorating U.S.-Israel relationship and the broader implications of Iran's nuclear ambitions. The event featured discussions from prominent figures including Senator Evan Bayh, Dr. Robert Satloff, Dr. Robert Kagan, and Tal Becker, moderated by Dan Senor.

Main Speakers and Their Contributions

Dr. Robert Satloff

• Context of Tensions: Highlighted that the U.S.-Israel relationship is in a serious crisis, though not as severe as the 1956 Suez crisis.
• Iran's Nuclear Threat: Argued that the crisis is accelerating Iran's nuclear program and may lead to Israeli preventative action.
• U.S. Strategy: Stressed the need for a comprehensive strategy that includes sanctions, diplomacy, and a credible threat of force to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN)

• U.S. Policy on Iran: Agreed with Satloff that the U.S. needs to show firmness and that aggressive sanctions are necessary.
• Importance of Allies: Emphasized the importance of maintaining strong alliances with Israel and other nations.
• Palestinian Reconciliation: Stressed that the Palestinian people must embrace reconciliation and recognize the need for peace, not just resistance.

Dr. Robert Kagan

• U.S. Foreign Policy: Criticized the Obama administration for focusing too much on engagement with adversaries like Iran, Russia, and China, rather than on reassuring allies.
• Iran's Stability: Noted that the Iranian regime, despite official claims, is not stable and that the U.S. has missed opportunities to support the opposition.
• European Role: Highlighted the growing concern in Europe about Iran's nuclear ambitions and urged the U.S. to work more closely with European allies.

Tal Becker

• Hamas and Gaza: Viewed Hamas as a political and social movement that is losing public support and needs to be marginalized.
• Lebanon and Hezbollah: Noted that Hezbollah, supported by Iran, is now a northern front against Israel and that the U.S. must focus on countering Iran's influence.
• Arab Normalization with Israel: Advocated for the Arab states to normalize relations with Israel, arguing that it is in their interest and would help create a more stable environment.

Key Issues and Main Points

• U.S.-Israel Tensions: The relationship is under strain due to disagreements over Iran and the peace process, though not yet at the level of the 1956 crisis.
• Iran's Nuclear Ambitions: The U.S. and Israel are concerned about Iran's progress toward nuclear capability, which could destabilize the region.
• Strategic Options for Iran: The administration's strategy should include sanctions, diplomacy, and a credible threat of force to deter Iran.
• Arab-Israeli Peace Process: The lack of progress in the peace process is a distraction from the real challenge of Iran.
• Hamas and Hezbollah: Both groups are seen as threats, with Hamas losing support and Hezbollah being a proxy for Iran.
• Role of Arab States: Arab states are more concerned about Iran than about the peace process, and normalization with Israel could help regional stability.

Summary of Key Recommendations

• U.S. and Israel Must Show Resolve: To prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, both nations must demonstrate a unified and firm stance.
• Support for Opposition in Iran: The U.S. should support the Iranian opposition to weaken the regime and increase pressure on it.
• Enhance Regional Cooperation: Work with European allies and other nations to counter Iran's nuclear ambitions and support regional stability.
• Promote Palestinian Reconciliation: Encourage the Palestinian leadership to move toward reconciliation and reject terrorism.
• Marginalize Hamas: Use a combination of military, economic, and diplomatic tools to reduce Hamas' influence and legitimacy.
• Normalize Relations with Arab States: Arab states should normalize ties with Israel to promote coexistence and peace, which is in their own interest.

Conclusion

The conference underscored the urgency of addressing Iran's nuclear program and the need for a unified U.S.-Israel strategy. It also highlighted the importance of regional cooperation, the role of Arab states in the peace process, and the necessity of a comprehensive approach to counter both Iran and groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. The speakers emphasized that without strong and consistent action, the situation could worsen, leading to greater instability in the Middle East.