2019年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Debt_Maturity_and_the_Use_of_Short_77页_2mb

Summary: Debt Maturity and the Use of Short-term Debt - Evidence from Sovereigns and Firms

Core Content

This paper investigates the evolution and determinants of debt maturity and the use of short-term debt across sovereigns and firms. It highlights the financial and real consequences of debt maturity structures and examines how country-level, corporate, and global factors influence these structures. The analysis is based on various data sets, including bond issuance data, syndicated loan data, and corporate balance sheet data.

Main Findings

• Short-term debt is associated with rollover risk and financial crises. It also affects economic activity by limiting firms' ability to make long-term productive investments.
• Debt maturity varies across income groups and market segments:
  • Sovereign bond issuances have similar median maturities across advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).
  • EMDEs issue a higher share of short-term debt in local markets compared to AEs.
  • Corporate debt is generally shorter in EMDEs, but foreign currency debt allows them to access longer maturities in international markets.
  • Syndicated loans in EMDEs have a higher average weighted maturity due to their use in long-term project finance.
  • Corporate balance sheets show that short-term debt is more common in EMDEs, even among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
• Debt maturity decreases during crises for both AEs and EMDEs, regardless of the type of instrument or market.
• Recent trends show that debt maturity has increased, but for EMDEs, this has been accompanied by higher exposure to exchange rate risk due to the prevalence of foreign currency debt.
• Corporate characteristics are the most important drivers of corporate debt maturity. Profitability and access to collateral are positively associated with longer debt maturity.
• Country characteristics influence sovereign debt maturity, particularly in EMDEs, where negative domestic shocks and weaker balance sheets are more strongly linked to shorter maturity.
• Property rights have a positive effect on corporate debt maturity, while other country-level factors have less consistent associations.
• Global factors, such as risk aversion and the term spread, have some influence on debt maturity, but to a lesser extent than corporate and country-level factors.

Key Policy Implications

• Building buffers (e.g., liquid assets) during good times can help reduce exposure to rollover risk during crises.
• EMDE sovereigns should improve their risk profile to mitigate the impact of negative domestic shocks and balance sheet deterioration.
• Macro- and micro-prudential policies should be used to monitor and manage foreign exchange exposure, especially given the rise in foreign currency debt.
• The institutional environment matters for debt maturity, and protecting property rights can help extend debt maturity.
• Since debt maturities are sensitive to global conditions, policymakers should prepare for potential declines in debt maturity as monetary conditions normalize.
• Addressing data gaps is crucial for better monitoring of debt maturity. Financial accounts/flow of funds data, nonsyndicated bank lending, and household debt maturity data should be routinely collected.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while short-term debt has financial risks, it is used for various reasons, including cost efficiency, maturity matching, and disciplining risk-taking. However, recent increases in debt maturity, particularly in EMDEs, have been linked to higher exchange rate exposure, which raises policy concerns. The role of institutions and property rights is significant, and improving the institutional framework can lead to more stable and longer-term debt structures. Policymakers are advised to monitor debt maturity trends, manage risks, and enhance data collection to better understand and respond to debt structure dynamics.