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Thomas Carothers on Democracy Promotion: A Summary

Core Content

Thomas Carothers provides a comprehensive overview of the evolution and current challenges of democracy promotion in the international arena. He outlines how this field has changed over time, from its early days in the 1980s to its significant growth in the 1990s, and now faces a complex and controversial landscape in the 21st century.

Main Viewpoints

1. Democracy Promotion as a Global Enterprise

• Democracy promotion has become a central theme in international politics.
• It is not just about spreading democracy, but also reflects the broader state of international relations and political values.
• The field is now subject to significant doubt, suspicion, and resistance, particularly in the wake of the Iraq War and the war on terrorism.

2. The Third Wave of Democracy (1970s–1990s)

• The third wave of democracy, initiated by Samuel Huntington, marked the beginning of modern democracy promotion.
• The 1980s saw the emergence of democracy promotion as a distinct policy and aid domain, with activities such as election observation, party strengthening, and rule-of-law programs.
• The 1990s were a period of significant expansion, driven by:
  • The spread of democracy globally.
  • The end of the Cold War, which removed the geostrategic context that had previously overshadowed democracy promotion.
  • A growing link between democracy and economic development, leading to a unified donor agenda.

3. The Rise of Democracy Promotion as an Industry

• By the late 1990s, democracy promotion had become a major international activity.
• It was supported by a wide range of actors, including bilateral agencies, multilateral organisations like the UNDP, OAS, OSCE, and regional bodies.
• The field was estimated to be absorbing over 2 billion Euros annually, with European actors playing a slightly larger role than North Americans.

4. Flaws and Limitations of Democracy Promotion

• Despite its growth, democracy promotion in the 1990s was not without flaws.
• Limitation 1: Western powers often prioritized other interests over democracy promotion, maintaining close ties with non-democratic regimes.
• Limitation 2: The actual impact of democracy promotion was often modest, and many promoters overestimated their role in driving democratic change.
• Limitation 3: The successes of democracy were largely driven by internal forces rather than external aid.

5. The Controversy and Backlash

• Democracy promotion has become increasingly controversial in recent years.
• The association with the Iraq War and the war on terrorism has significantly damaged its legitimacy.
• The U.S. has been particularly criticized for linking democracy promotion with regime change and military intervention.
• Many countries, including Russia, Ethiopia, Bahrain, and others, have begun to resist or question Western democracy promotion efforts.

6. The Decline of International Consensus

• The global consensus on democratic values has weakened.
• There is now more conflict and less agreement on the role of external actors in promoting democracy.
• Trust in the field is eroding, and there is growing skepticism about the motives and methods of democracy promoters.

Key Information

• Democracy Promotion Timeline:

  • 1970s–1980s: Emergence as a distinct policy and aid domain.
  • 1990s: Significant growth due to the third wave, Cold War end, and linkage with development.
  • 2000s onward: Controversy and backlash due to the Iraq War and the war on terrorism.

• Impact of the Iraq War:

  • The war in Iraq is seen as a major setback for democracy promotion.
  • It has led to widespread suspicion and criticism of U.S. and Western efforts.
  • The association of democracy promotion with military force and regime change has undermined its legitimacy.

• U.S. and European Convergence:

  • In the 1990s, U.S. and European efforts began to converge, especially in regions like Eastern Europe and the Balkans.
  • This collaboration was a positive development, though it has since been challenged.

• Current Challenges:

  • The democratic trend has slowed or stagnated in many regions.
  • Non-democratic regimes, especially in the Middle East and parts of Asia, have become more confident in promoting alternative models.
  • The high price of oil and gas has also reduced pressure on non-democratic governments.

U.S. Perspective and Recommendations

• The U.S. faces a new debate on whether to continue democracy promotion.
• Public support for democracy promotion has declined significantly.
• To restore credibility, the U.S. must:
  • Avoid using unauthorised military force for democracy promotion.
  • Separate democracy promotion from regime change.
  • Base interventions on democratic principles rather than strategic interests.
  • Refrain from intervening in elections to favor specific groups.

Conclusion

Democracy promotion has evolved from a niche activity to a major international concern, but its legitimacy and effectiveness are now under serious question. The field must adapt to new geopolitical realities and internal challenges to regain trust and continue its mission in a more constructive and principled manner.