2008年-世界发展银行全球_Ukraine_Agricultural_Competitiveness_66页_4mb

Summary of the Document: Ukraine's Agricultural Competitiveness

Core Content

This document, titled "Report No. 44843-UA: Ukraine - Agricultural Competitiveness" (June 2008), is a World Bank policy note that assesses the current and potential role of agriculture in Ukraine's economy, evaluates the competitiveness of its agricultural sector, and identifies key constraints and policy recommendations for enhancing competitiveness.

Main Points

1. Agriculture's Role in the Ukrainian Economy

• The agri-food sector is a significant component of Ukraine's economy.
• In 2007, agriculture accounted for approximately 7% of GDP, and food processing for 8%, bringing the agri-food sector's share to ~20% when including upstream industries.
• 32% of Ukraine's population resides in rural areas, and 10% of the workforce is employed in agriculture and food processing.
• There are two broad types of farms: individual and corporate. Corporate farms account for ~59% of agricultural land and ~30% of gross agricultural output (GAO), while individual farms (including household plots and peasant farms) account for the rest.
• The share of household plots in GAO varies significantly across regions, with the highest in the Western Oblasts (near 90%) and the lowest in the Eastern and Southern Oblasts (under 50%).

2. Agricultural Potential

• Ukraine has a large agro-climatic endowment, with over 40 million hectares of agricultural land, of which ~32.5 million hectares are arable.
• Chernozem soils (rich in humus) cover over 50% of arable land and are ideal for field crops.
• Ukraine's geographic location provides access to key markets, including the Black Sea, Middle East, FSU, North Africa, and the EU.
• However, precipitation levels and soil erosion are major constraints to agricultural production, especially in the South and East.
• The Chernobyl nuclear accident contaminated parts of Ukraine, particularly in the Kiev, Zhitomir, Chernigov, and Cherkassy regions, further limiting agricultural potential.

3. Future Agricultural Markets and Competitiveness

• International agricultural trade is expanding, and prices are rising.
• While price peaks may not be long-term, high prices and trade growth are expected to persist.
• Ukraine has the potential to increase agricultural exports if competitiveness issues are addressed.
• WTO accession and EU free trade agreement negotiations provide opportunities but also increase pressure on the sector to improve competitiveness.

4. Current Status of Agricultural Competitiveness

• Domestic Resource Cost (DRC) analysis is used to assess competitiveness.
• In 2005, 44% of wheat farms, 41% of sunflower seed farms, 25% of barley farms, 40% of egg farms, 22% of beef farms, and 20% of milk farms were competitive.
• The lowest competitiveness is observed for maize, rapeseed, soybeans, pork, potatoes, poultry, and sugarbeet.
• Most farms in Ukraine are not able to cover the costs of domestic and tradable inputs, indicating low value addition in many cases.
• Competitive farms account for a disproportionate share of total output, such as ~56% of Ukraine's wheat production from 44% of wheat farms.

5. Factors Constraining Agricultural Competitiveness

• Inefficient and unpredictable policy framework hampers market transparency and investment.
• Domestic support is often inefficient and counterproductive, with grains and oilseeds taxed and sugarbeet heavily subsidized.
• Inadequate food safety and quality control systems are a major issue, leading to trade restrictions and loss of market access.
• Poor marketing and processing systems result in inflated margins, high costs, and inefficient resource allocation.
• Lack of land markets and bankruptcy enforcement limits investment in agricultural infrastructure and technology.
• Shortage of human capital and lack of skills in business administration, farm management, and market knowledge hinder productivity and competitiveness.
• Agricultural research and education fail to provide trained professionals and independent policy analysis.

6. Measures to Enhance Agricultural Competitiveness

• Policy reforms should focus on reducing ad-hoc interventions, improving transparency, and streamlining trade and market policies.
• Investments should prioritize food safety monitoring and certification, trade infrastructure, logistics, technical advisory services, market information systems, customs procedures, land markets, and research and education institutions.
• Developing marketing and processing systems is essential to translate farm-level competitiveness into international competitiveness.
• Improving the efficiency of public and private resource allocation is critical for long-term competitiveness.

Key Information

• Currency Equivalents: 1 UAH = US$0.21 (June 18, 2008).
• Fiscal Year: January 1 to December 31.
• DRC Analysis: Reveals that wheat, sunflower seed, barley, eggs, beef, and milk have a higher competitiveness, while maize, rapeseed, soybeans, pork, potatoes, poultry, and sugarbeet are less competitive.
• WTO and EU Accession: Provide opportunities but also increase the pressure to compete internationally.
• Export VAT Refunds and Over-regulation: Continue to hinder agricultural growth.
• Food Safety Standards: Are inconsistent with WTO rules and international practices, affecting market access.
• Land and Bankruptcy Issues: Prevent the efficient reallocation of assets and investment in modern technologies.
• Human Capital Shortage: Leads to inefficient use of resources and lack of innovation.

Conclusion

Ukraine has the potential to be a major player in global agricultural markets, but current competitiveness is limited by a combination of policy inefficiencies, infrastructure shortcomings, and human capital deficits. Addressing these issues through policy reform and targeted investments is essential to realize this potential and increase the sector's contribution to economic growth.