2018年-世界发展银行全球_Indonesia_Economic_Quarterly_June_2018___Learning_More_Growing_Faster_74页_3mb

报告摘要

Indonesia Economic Quarterly - June 2018 Summary

Core Content

The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) is a publication by the World Bank's Jakarta office, aimed at providing insights into Indonesia's economic developments, policy changes, and medium-term challenges. It serves a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and analysts.

Main Aims

Economic and Fiscal Update: Reports on key economic developments over the past three months and updates the outlook for Indonesia's economy and social welfare.
In-Depth Analysis of Education: Examines the outcomes and challenges of Indonesia's 15 years of educational reforms, focusing on improving education quality and human capital development.

Key Economic Developments

GDP Growth: Real GDP growth in Q1 2018 was 5.1%, slightly lower than the 5.2% recorded in Q4 2017. The slowdown was attributed to a widening trade deficit and a moderation in government consumption.
Investment Growth: Gross fixed capital formation grew by 7.9% yoy, the fastest pace in over five years, driven by strong commodity prices and manufacturing activity. Machinery and equipment investment saw the highest growth, rising from 22.3% in Q4 2017 to 23.7% in Q1 2018. Vehicle investment rebounded after a contraction in Q4 2017.
Imports and Exports: Imports grew more than twice the pace of exports, contributing to a drag on GDP growth. The services trade deficit shrank sharply, narrowing the current account deficit to 2.1% of GDP from 2.3% in Q4.
Inflation: Headline inflation eased to 3.3% yoy in Q1, the lowest since Q4 2016. Core inflation also declined from 3.0% to 2.7%. However, food price inflation remained a concern.
Currency: The Rupiah depreciated in Q1 but showed early signs of recovery in mid-Q2. It reached a 31-month low against the USD, influenced by global financial volatility and the tightening of U.S. monetary policy.
Government Spending and Revenue: Government revenues reached a 10-year high, driven by non-O&G income tax and VAT. Social spending and fuel subsidies were the main contributors to higher government expenditure. Capital spending, however, contracted.
Fiscal Outlook: The World Bank projects a fiscal deficit of 2.1% of GDP for 2018. A fiscal consolidation is expected for 2019, an election year, to signal commitment to economic stability.

Risks and Outlook

Downside Risks: The outlook for Indonesia's economy remains largely positive, but risks are increasing. These include continued global financial volatility, slower global trade, and the potential impact of trade protectionism on Indonesian exports.
GDP Growth Forecast: Real GDP growth is expected to reach 5.2% in 2018, with private consumption growing modestly and investment remaining robust due to strong commodity prices.
Current Account Deficit: The current account deficit is expected to widen in 2018 and 2019 due to stronger domestic demand, weaker terms-of-trade, and slower global growth.
Inflation: Headline inflation is expected to remain low in 2018 but may rise in 2019 due to higher import costs and a weaker currency.

Education Reform Overview

Outcomes: Over the past 15 years, Indonesia has made progress in expanding access to education, but quality remains a significant challenge. Functional illiteracy rates among 15-year-olds are high, at 55%, compared to less than 10% in Vietnam.
Reforms: The reforms covered the right areas, including increasing education financing, enhancing local participation in governance, improving teacher quality, and ensuring student preparedness. However, uneven implementation has limited the full potential of these reforms.
Key Challenges:
- Inequality: Student results remain unequal, with poorer students lagging behind.
- Teacher Management: There are major challenges in teacher management, including a high proportion of non-certified teachers and the reliance on contract teachers with non-standard procedures.
- National Exam Performance: The scores in the national exam have decreased in recent years due to changes in regulations and increased focus on integrity.

Recommendations

Teacher Qualification: Define and enforce qualification criteria for all teachers entering the classroom.
Targeted Funding: Complement existing education financing mechanisms with a targeted, performance-based transfer for underperforming schools and districts.
Public Awareness: Launch a national education quality campaign to raise public awareness and pressure for effective action to improve student learning.

Key Contributors and Authors

Lead Author: Derek H. C. Chen (Senior Economist)
Core Team: Abigail, Arsianti, Yus Medina, Alief Aulia Rezza, Jaffar Al-Rikabi, Dhruv Sharma
Editorial Guidance: Rodrigo A. Chaves (Country Director), Ndiame Diop (Practice Manager), Frederico Gil Sander (Lead Economist)
Supporting Contributions: From various World Bank economists and analysts

Key Figures and Tables

Figure A.1: Net exports were a drag on GDP growth in Q1.
Figure A.2: Machinery and equipment investment drove fixed capital formation.
Figure A.3: Private consumption indicators showed a mixed picture.
Figure A.4: Social spending was the main driver of government consumption.
Figure A.5: Retail sales growth has decoupled from real private consumption growth since 2015.
Figure B.1: School attainment in Indonesia has improved significantly over the past 25 years.
Figure B.2: Education quality has improved despite a setback at the turn of the century.
Figure B.3: Most Indonesians are functionally illiterate.
Figure B.4: Human capital reforms have the potential to boost long-term economic growth.
Figure B.5: School enrollment of 16-18-year-olds grew for all income levels.
Figure B.6: Indonesia's PISA scores increased during rapid enrollment growth.
Figure B.7: PISA math scores improved for all students, but less so for poorer ones.
Figure B.8: Schools lack many critical resources according to school principals.
Figure B.9: Education resources have increased significantly since 2001.
Figure B.10: Distribution of education budget by province size.
Figure B.11: Indonesia has one of the lowest education expenditures among PISA participants.
Figure B.12: Smaller districts have lower capacity to manage the education system.
Figure B.13: Most districts do not fulfill all Minimum Service Standards (MSS).
Figure B.14: New schools lead to smaller average school sizes.
Figure B.15: Most teachers have bachelor's degrees.
Figure B.16: Half of general education teachers are certified.
Figure B.17: Young teachers are often contract teachers with non-standard procedures.
Figure B.18: Teacher knowledge is low, especially among contract teachers.
Figure B.19: Age distribution of teachers.
Figure B.20: National Exam scores have decreased in recent years.
Figure B.21: New integrity mechanisms are affecting school scores.

References and Tables

Table A.1: Indonesia's Balance of Payment (BOP).
Table A.2: Key economic indicators.
Table A.3: Indonesia's key commodities' annual weight in the export basket.
Table A.4: World Bank's projections for 2018 compared to the 2018 Budget.
Table B.1: Constitutional Amendment established the right to education.
Table B.2: School characteristics by socioeconomic conditions.
Table B.3: Indonesia's education expenditure is below most East Asian countries.
Table B.4: Estimated distribution of APBN by province size.
Table B.5: Classes, teachers, and students in primary education by school size.
Table B.6: Summary of main actions introduced recently.

Boxes

Box A.1: Highlights the disconnect between high-frequency consumption indicators and national accounts.
Box B.1: Discusses the alignment of Indonesia's education policy with international best practices.
Box B.2: Outlines the KIAT Guru program for improving teacher performance and accountability.
Box B.3: Examines the role and challenges of MORA in education.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the importance of both improved policies and effective implementation in enhancing Indonesia's human capital and economic growth. While the economy continued to grow robustly in Q1 2018, external risks and challenges in the education sector remain critical areas for attention. The World Bank encourages targeted actions to improve education quality and ensure equitable outcomes for all students.

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