深度-欧洲安全研究所-准备迎接一个更热、越来越数字化、支离破碎的2030年（英文）-2021.5-113页_7mb

The Future of Conflict Prevention: Preparing for a Hotter, More Digital and Fragmented 2030

Core Content

This Chaillot Paper by Katariina Mustasila explores the future of conflict prevention in light of three major global megatrends: climate change, digitalisation, and fragmentation of authority. It outlines how these trends will shape the conflict landscape in the coming decade and proposes strategies to mitigate their potential to escalate conflict.

Main Trends and Their Impact on Conflict

Megatrend 1: Climate Change and Conflict

• Prognosis for 2030: Global average temperature is expected to rise by close to 1.5°C, with an increase in extreme weather events.
• Conflict Escalation: Climate change can increase the risk of conflict in fragile contexts with low adaptive capacity, especially between groups reliant on natural resources and against state authorities.
• Structural Impacts: It exacerbates existing political and structural vulnerabilities, increasing the likelihood of localised inter-group tensions and citizen revolts.
• Key Insight: Strengthening local governance and resilience is essential to counteract the escalatory effects of climate change.

Megatrend 2: Digitalisation and Conflict

• Prognosis for 2030: Near-universal internet and smartphone coverage, with the rapid growth of AI, IoT, and 3D printing in daily life.
• Conflict Escalation: Digitalisation accelerates conflict escalation by lowering the threshold for mobilisation and providing new tools for conflict.
• Structural Impacts: It can polarise societies and provide new platforms for conflict, especially once initial cleavages have formed.
• Key Insight: Digital diplomacy and the responsible use of big data and AI are important tools for conflict prevention and peacebuilding.

Megatrend 3: Fragmentation of Authority and Conflict

• Prognosis for 2030: A polynodal world with the weakening of multilateral institutions and the rise of private and quasi-state security providers.
• Conflict Escalation: Fragmentation increases the number of conflict parties and layers, making conflicts more complex and harder to resolve.
• Structural Impacts: It multiplies political incompatibilities and threatens to spread and intensify conflicts.
• Key Insight: Regional multilateralism and multi-level coalition-building are crucial to managing this trend and preventing conflict escalation.

Remedies for Conflict Prevention

Remedy 1: Local Governance and Climate Resilience

• Structural Prevention: Support local governance institutions to enhance their resilience and adaptive capacities.
• Operational Prevention: Strengthen local-level coping mechanisms to prevent conflict in the context of climate change.

Remedy 2: Digitalisation for Peace

• Structural Prevention: Promote the use of digital public goods and ensure the accountable use of AI.
• Operational Prevention: Leverage data and AI for peacebuilding, including digital diplomacy and counter-violence tactics.

Remedy 3: Regional and Flexible Multilateralism

• Structural Prevention: Regional organisations can play a key role in responding to global threats, even in a fragmented world.
• Operational Prevention: Flexible and multi-track coalition-building is necessary to enhance multilateral responses and prevent conflict.

Key Views and Recommendations

• The three megatrends are high-impact, long-term, and difficult to reverse, but their conflict-inducing effects are conditional and indirect, meaning they can be mitigated through proactive and strategic action.
• Conflict prevention is not only about stopping conflict but also about sustaining peace and reducing the rationale for armed mobilisation.
• The EU has increasingly positioned itself as a leader in conflict prevention, with tools like the Conflict Early Warning System and the Instrument contributing to Stability and Peace (IcSP).
• There is a disconnect between policy rhetoric and practical implementation, as many conflict prevention efforts remain underfunded and lack concrete mechanisms.

Conclusion

• The paper advocates for a cooperative and preventive approach to conflict, arguing that understanding and addressing the implications of these megatrends is essential for maintaining peace and security.
• It suggests that local governance, digital tools, and regional multilateralism are key components of an effective conflict prevention strategy.
• The pandemic has further underscored the need for better preparedness and a more preventive mindset in international relations.

Structure of the Chaillot Paper

• Part I: Analyzes the conflict escalatory effects of each of the three megatrends.
• Part II: Focuses on actionable remedies to break the link between the trends and conflict escalation.
• Conclusion: Summarizes the main findings and discusses the path forward, particularly in the context of the pandemic.

Acknowledgements

• The author thanks several experts for their feedback and contributions to the paper, including Florence Gaub, Giovanni Faleg, Gearóid Cronin, and Christian Dietrich.
• The insights from the EUISS Local Governance in Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding workshop in 2019 are also acknowledged.

Author Information

• Katariina Mustasila is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA), focusing on political violence and the EU's conflict prevention and peacebuilding efforts, especially in sub-Saharan Africa.
• She previously worked as a Senior Associate Analyst at the EUISS.
• Holds a PhD from the Government Department at the University of Essex.

References and Further Reading

• The paper draws on strategic foresight and conflict studies to provide an analytical framework.
• It references the UN Agenda for Peace and the EU Global Strategy as foundational policy documents in conflict prevention.
• The European Parliament and OECD are cited as sources of funding and policy development in conflict prevention.

Summary of Findings

• The three megatrends will continue to evolve and significantly impact peace and conflict dynamics.
• Conflict prevention is not limited to pre-conflict stages but includes both operational and structural actions.
• A preventive approach must be proactive, sustainable, and inclusive, involving multiple stakeholders and sectors.
• The EU has a central role in promoting and implementing conflict prevention strategies, particularly through regional and multilateral engagement.

Final Note

• The Chaillot Paper encourages a more integrated and preventive approach to conflict, especially in the face of a hotter, more digital, and more fragmented world.
• It concludes with a cautious note of hope, emphasizing the potential for conflict prevention through strategic and proactive measures.