战略与国际研究中心-Will-Foreign-Policy-Prove-Decisive-in-Canada-s-2019-Election__3页_374kb

Canadian Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Summary

Core Content

The document explores the relationship between Canadian public opinion and foreign policy decisions, highlighting how the government of the day typically manages public sentiment in one of three ways: aligning policy with public opinion, shaping public opinion to match policy, or enacting a policy that is at odds with public opinion, often as a political gamble.

Main Views

• Public Disinterest in Foreign Policy: The Canadian public generally shows limited concern for foreign policy issues compared to domestic matters. Most foreign policy decisions are not central to voter decision-making.
• Government Policy Approaches:
  • Alignment: Governments often implement policies that reflect public opinion.
  • Shaping Opinion: Some governments believe they can influence public opinion through effective communication and persuasion.
  • Gamble: In rare cases, governments may pursue policies that contradict public opinion, often due to strong ideological beliefs or external pressures.
• Domestic Issues Dominate: Economic performance, tax policy, and specific economic plans are the most critical factors in Canadian elections. Foreign policy issues, such as trade agreements and military interventions, rank lower in public priority.
• Examples of Policy and Public Opinion Interaction:
  • Kyoto Protocol (1997–2002): Initially supported by the public, it later became a political liability due to domestic economic concerns.
  • Paris Agreement (2015): Supported by the majority of Canadians, with the Trudeau government leveraging a growing domestic and international consensus on climate change.
  • Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): Broadly supported by 64% of Canadians in 2015, despite political challenges.
  • Refugee Policy and Military Intervention: These issues show less alignment with public opinion, with 60% opposing the refugee plan and 66% supporting continued military involvement in the Middle East.

Key Information

• Election Polls:
  • In the 2015 federal election, economic performance was the top issue (58%), followed by tax reduction (44%) and specific economic plans (41%).
  • Foreign policy issues such as the TPP, military mission in the Middle East, and the Syrian refugee crisis ranked much lower, with only 21%, 21%, and 19% respectively being considered important.
• Public Opinion Trends:
  • Climate Change has become a more accepted and prioritized issue over the last decade, making the Paris Agreement a relatively low-risk policy for the Trudeau government.
  • Refugee Policy and military intervention are more contentious, with significant public concern about security and a lack of consensus on the government's approach.
• Political Risks:
  • The government faces higher risks with refugee policy due to its domestic security implications and potential for public backlash.
  • Military intervention is more aligned with public opinion than the current government's stance, which may pose challenges in the future.

Figures and Data Highlights

• FIGURE 1: Priority issues in the 2015 election show domestic concerns dominate over foreign policy.
• FIGURE 2: Support for the Kyoto Protocol was high (74%) in 2002, but it became a political liability in 2008.
• FIGURE 3: In 2015, 64% of Canadians supported the TPP, indicating a broad public acceptance.
• FIGURE 4: Only 40% of Canadians supported accepting 25,000 Syrian refugees in 2015, showing significant public concern.
• FIGURE 5: 66% of Canadians supported extending the military mission against ISIS in 2015, suggesting alignment with the previous government's policy.

Conclusion

While the Trudeau government has successfully aligned its foreign policy with public opinion on climate change and trade, it faces potential challenges with refugee and military policies, which are less popular and more sensitive. The document underscores that in Canadian politics, foreign policy is often secondary to domestic concerns, and governments must carefully navigate the public opinion landscape to avoid political backlash.