20180615-NATIXIS-France__Who_is_now_better_off_than_before_the_2008_crisis__Who_is_still_worse_off__8页_926kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

This document, titled "Flash Economics", published on 15 June 2018, analyzes the economic impact of the 2008-2009 crisis on various social categories in France. It evaluates the overall economic recovery and the relative financial situations of different groups, highlighting disparities in how the crisis affected them.

Main Points

• Overall Economic Recovery: France has regained its pre-crisis real income level by 2011, as shown in Chart 1.
• Social Categories Affected Differently:
  • Better off:
    • Wage earners who kept their jobs
    • Highly skilled workers
    • Pensioners
    • Borrowers
  • Worse off:
    • Low- to medium-skilled workers
    • Young people with low- to medium educational attainment
    • Lenders
    • Owners of wealth

Key Information

1. Wage Earners by Skill Level

• Overall: All wage earners are better off due to higher real wages.
• Unemployment: The unemployment rate for low- to medium-skilled workers remains much higher than pre-crisis levels.
• Chart 2 and 3: Illustrate the unemployment rate by educational attainment.
• Table 1A: Shows unemployment rates for different educational levels among the population aged 25 to 64.
• Table 1B: Provides unemployment rates for all individuals aged 15 and more.

2. Young People by Educational Attainment

• Unemployment: The unemployment rate for young people is higher than before the crisis.
• Starting Wages: For young people with low educational attainment, starting wages are lower than pre-crisis levels.
• Table 2: Details youth unemployment rates by education level.
• Table 3: Shows estimated starting salaries for school leavers based on educational level and generation.

3. Pensioners

• Purchasing Power: The per capita purchasing power of pensions is higher than before the crisis.
• Chart 5: Illustrates the real value of pensions over time.

4. Companies and Their Shareholders

• Profit Rate: The profit rate is at pre-crisis levels.
• Dividends: Dividends are lower than before the crisis.
• Self-Financing Rate: The self-financing rate (cash flow to investment) is lower than before the crisis.
• Charts 6A, 6B, and 6C: Provide visual data on profit rates, dividends, and self-financing rates.

5. Lenders and Borrowers

• Low Interest Rates: Borrowers are in a better situation due to low interest rates, at the expense of lenders.
• Charts 7A and 7B: Highlight the relative financial positions of lenders and borrowers.

6. Owners of Wealth

• Asset Values: The real value of asset prices (stocks and real estate) is lower than before the crisis.
• Charts 8A and 8B: Show real prices of stocks and real estate, adjusted for consumer prices.

Conclusion

• Still Worse Off: The following groups are still worse off than before the 2008-2009 crisis:
  • Low- to medium-skilled workers
  • Young people (especially those with low- to medium educational attainment)
  • Company shareholders
  • Owners of wealth
  • Lenders

Disclaimer

• The document is intended for professionals and qualified investors.
• It is strictly confidential and not to be disclosed to third parties without written consent.
• It is not a personalized investment recommendation and does not constitute a financial analysis.
• No liability is accepted by Natixis or any associated entity for the distribution, possession, or delivery of this document.
• Regulatory Information: Natixis is regulated in various jurisdictions, including the European Central Bank (ECB), ACPR in France, Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and Prudential Regulation Authority in the UK, and Bank of Spain, CNMV, Bank of Italy, and CONSOB in other countries.
• No responsibility is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of the information or for any assumptions made.

Additional Notes

• The views expressed are personal and may differ from other authors.
• No compensation is directly or indirectly related to the recommendations or views in the report.
• The stock disclaimers can be found at the provided link: http://research.intranet/GlobalResearchWeb/main/globalresearch/DisclaimersSpecifiques