深度-东盟-东盟成员国老年收入保障政策趋势、挑战与机遇（英文）-2021.6-227页_4mb

Summary of "Old-age Income Security in ASEAN Member States - Policy Trends, Challenges and Opportunities"

Core Content

This report examines the status, challenges, and opportunities for old-age income security in ASEAN Member States (AMS). It highlights the demographic changes in the region, emphasizing the aging population and the implications for social protection and pension systems. The report is prepared by the ASEAN Secretariat, with the support of the Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs of Viet Nam and the International Labour Organization (ILO), and aims to provide a comprehensive overview of current pension policies and recommend ways to improve them.

Main Points

• Demographic Transition: ASEAN is expected to face a significant aging population, with the number of older persons projected to increase from 64 million in 2017 to 168 million by 2050. This transition is occurring faster in some countries, such as Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam, while even countries with large youth populations, like Cambodia and Lao PDR, are aging rapidly.

• Old-Age Dependency Rate: The old-age dependency rate in ASEAN is expected to rise from 8.8 in 2015 to 23.9 in 2050, indicating a growing need for social protection systems to support the elderly.

• Pension Coverage: Pension coverage in ASEAN is currently limited, with only 55.2% of the population in Asia and the Pacific receiving old-age pensions. In Southeast Asia, the rate is even lower, at 31.5%. Among AMS, coverage varies significantly, from 81.7% in Brunei Darussalam to less than 40% in the Philippines and Viet Nam, and substantially lower in Cambodia, Indonesia, and Lao PDR.

• Gender Inequality: There is a notable gender gap in pension coverage, with older women being less likely to be covered than older men. For example, in the Philippines, only 29% of older women are covered, compared to 53.2% of older men.

• Informal Economy: Many older persons in ASEAN rely on informal employment, which is not well-covered by existing pension systems. This leads to limited access to formal pension schemes and a greater reliance on family support, personal savings, and community assistance.

• Financial Sustainability: Ensuring the financial sustainability of pension systems is a major challenge. Many countries face difficulties in balancing pension costs with fiscal resources, especially as the population ages.

• Policy Gaps: There are significant gaps in policy design, implementation, and enforcement across AMS. The report highlights the need for more inclusive and sustainable pension systems that address both coverage and adequacy.

• Global Context: The report notes that many high-income countries are reforming their pension systems to reduce costs, often by increasing the retirement age, reducing benefits, and raising contribution rates. These reforms may undermine the adequacy of pension benefits and the role of public pensions in poverty reduction.

Key Recommendations

• Expand Coverage: Increase pension coverage to include more informal workers and self-employed individuals, especially in countries where coverage is low.

• Improve Adequacy: Ensure that pension benefits are adequate, at least meeting the minimum standards set by ILO Conventions, such as the Social Security (Minimum Standards) Convention, 1952 (No. 102) and the Invalidity, Old-Age and Survivors' Benefits Convention, 1967 (No. 128).

• Enhance Financial Sustainability: Implement reforms that improve the long-term financial viability of pension systems, including better funding mechanisms and cost projections.

• Strengthen Social Protection Floors: Promote the establishment of social protection floors to ensure that all older persons have access to basic income security, regardless of their economic status.

• Policy Dialogue and Collaboration: Encourage policy dialogue among AMS and collaborate with international organizations like the ILO to develop evidence-based policies for old-age income security.

Challenges

• Limited Resources and Experience: Many AMS lack the resources and expertise to implement and sustain comprehensive pension systems.

• Informality of Labour Markets: The high level of informal employment in the region reduces the effectiveness of existing pension systems, as informal workers are often not covered.

• Fiscal Pressures: The aging population puts pressure on public finances, making it difficult to maintain current pension systems.

• Gender Inequality: The gender gap in pension coverage exacerbates inequalities, especially for older women who are more likely to be in informal employment and have lower income levels.

Opportunities

• ASEAN Cooperation: The report emphasizes the importance of ASEAN cooperation in addressing the aging challenge, including the use of the ASEAN Declaration on Strengthening Social Protection and the Action Plan for its implementation.

• Inclusive Pension Systems: The development of inclusive and universal pension systems can help address multiple issues, including poverty, inequality, and gender disparities.

• Public-Private Partnerships: Encouraging public-private partnerships and innovative financing mechanisms can help widen the fiscal space for social security and pension systems.

• Evidence-Based Policymaking: The report calls for evidence-based policymaking, using data and analysis to guide the development of more effective and sustainable pension systems.

Conclusion

The aging population in ASEAN presents both challenges and opportunities for pension systems and social protection. While many countries have made progress in establishing pension regimes, there is a need for more comprehensive and inclusive policies that address the financial sustainability, coverage, and adequacy of old-age income security. The report provides a foundation for policy dialogue and reform, encouraging ASEAN Member States to take proactive steps in ensuring that all older persons have access to adequate and sustainable income security.