2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Greece_Preliminary_Debt_Sustainability_Analysis_23页_746kb

报告摘要

The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) has evolved since the initial program in May 2010. Initially, debt was deemed sustainable but with low probability, due to high debt-to-GDP ratios and lack of structural reforms.
The 2011-12 debt relief was necessary due to a deep recession, with private creditors accepting haircuts, European partners providing NPV relief, and the Fund replacing the SBA with an EFF.
The June 2015 DSA warned that Greece would miss its debt targets by over 30 percent of GDP due to implementation problems and lack of political support for reforms.

Primary surplus is now projected to be no more than 1.5 percent of GDP in the long run, down from 3.5 percent.
Growth is revised to 1.25 percent in the long run, as ambitious productivity growth assumptions are considered unrealistic.
Privatization assumptions remain unchanged, with limited progress reported.
Banking sector issues persist, including high NPLs and Deferred Tax Assets, leading to no expected revenue from privatization and additional contingent liabilities.

The GFN (Gross Financing Needs) framework is preferred over the stock framework to better reflect concessional terms of European loans.
The projection horizon is extended to 2060, matching the maturities of European loans.
The DSA aims to ensure GFN remains below 15-20 percent of GDP and debt on a downward path to achieve sustainable market access.

Under baseline assumptions, debt-to-GDP is projected to reach 174 percent by 2020 and 167 percent by 2022, with a gradual decline to 160 percent by 2030, followed by a rise to 250 percent by 2060.
Gross financing needs cross the 15 percent of GDP threshold by 2024, and the 20 percent threshold by 2029, reaching 30 percent by 2040 and 60 percent by 2060.
A debt restructuring is required to reduce GFN by 20 percent of GDP by 2040 and an additional 20 percent by 2060 to meet sustainability goals.

Maturity extensions: Extend EFSF loans to 14 years, ESM loans to 10 years, and GLF loans to 30 years, reducing GFN and debt by 7 and 25 percent of GDP by 2060, respectively.
Payment deferrals: Extend grace periods on ESM loans to 6 years, EFSF loans to 17 years, and GLF loans to 20 years, with interest deferrals on EFSF loans by 17 years and ESM/GLF loans by up to 24 years, reducing GFN by 17 percent by 2040 and 24 percent by 2060.
Fixed interest rates: Official interest rates should be fixed at no more than 1.5 percent until 2040, which could help reduce debt by 53 percent by 2040 and 151 percent by 2060 when combined with other measures.

Upside scenario: Stronger policies could lead to 1.5 percent growth and no additional bank recapitalization, reducing GFN to 15 percent of GDP by 2060 and accelerating debt reduction.
Downside scenario: If growth stabilizes at 1 percent and the primary balance at 1 percent of GDP, debt sustainability would be at risk. In this case, interest on EFSF/ESM loans and deferred interest would need to be reduced to zero by 2050.
Implementation timing: Debt relief should be completed by the end of the program period. An upfront unconditional component is essential to signal commitment to sustainability and lower market financing costs.
Conditional debt relief should not extend beyond the program period, as it would undermine the Fund's objective of completing adjustment within the program.

Political support for reforms remains limited, especially for broad-based structural reforms.
Tax compliance is low, with tax collection rates declining and tax debt reaching 50 percent of GDP.
Pension spending is high (17.5 percent of GDP), far exceeding the euro-area average of 7 percent.
The tax system has a large implicit tax-free threshold, exempting more than half of wage and pension earners from income tax.
The DSA highlights the importance of credible policy commitments and frontloaded debt relief to ensure market confidence and sustainability.

The updated DSA reflects realistic assumptions based on political and institutional constraints.
Debt sustainability remains uncertain, requiring ambitious but achievable policy commitments.
The revised DSA suggests that debt restructuring is necessary to achieve long-term sustainability.
Frontloaded debt relief and automatic mechanisms post-program are critical to address future shocks and ensure credibility.