2011年-世界发展银行全球_Regulatory_and_Financial_Incentives_for_Scaling_Up_Concentrating_Solar_Power_in_Developing_Countries_165页_2mb

Regulatory and Financial Incentives for Scaling Up Concentrating Solar Power in Developing Countries

Core Content

This document provides an in-depth analysis of regulatory and financial incentives for scaling up Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) technologies in developing countries. It outlines the potential of CST to diversify energy portfolios, support development, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The report is based on a review of policies and practices from developed and developing countries, with a focus on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and South Africa, as well as India.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Introduction and Technology Brief

• CST Overview: Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) technologies include Parabolic Trough, Linear Fresnel, Power Tower, and Dish-Engine systems. These technologies are part of the broader Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) category.
• Technology Maturity: Varies by type, with Power Tower and Parabolic Trough being more mature and widely deployed compared to Linear Fresnel and Dish-Engine.
• Thermal Storage: Critical for improving the dispatchability and reliability of CST systems. Options include buffering, delivery period displacement, and extension.
• Hybridization: Combining CST with other technologies like gas turbines (ISC C) or steam turbines (DSG) can enhance efficiency and economic viability.

2. Regulatory and Financial Schemes - Current Situation

• Developed Countries Experience:
  • Spain: Implemented Feed-in Tariffs (FiTs) that effectively spurred large-scale investments in CST.
  • United States: Utilized Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and other financial instruments.
• Regulatory Instruments:
  • Feed-in Tariffs (FiTs): Provide guaranteed prices for electricity generated from CST, which can reduce investment risks and attract private capital.
  • Reverse Auction Mechanisms: Allow for competitive bidding and lower tariffs, improving cost efficiency.
  • Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS): Mandate a certain percentage of renewable energy in the grid, often combined with other incentives to enhance effectiveness.
• Key Conclusions:
  • FiTs are the most straightforward and effective for large-scale CST deployment when cost is not the main concern.
  • Reverse auction mechanisms can improve price discovery and reduce societal costs.
  • RPS schemes may be more suitable when policy makers prioritize societal cost considerations over cost efficiency.

3. Cost Reduction and Financial Sustainability

• Cost Drivers:
  • Land and labor prices.
  • Underlying commodity prices.
  • Economies of scale and volume production.
  • Supply chain bottlenecks and monopoly rents.
  • Financing conditions.
• Cost Reduction Potential:
  • Component-specific cost reductions are achievable through local manufacturing and improved supply chains.
  • Technology-specific and overall Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) reductions are possible with scale and innovation.
• Financial Sustainability:
  • Regulatory approaches significantly impact LCOEs.
  • Cost-effectiveness of FiTs and RPS schemes varies depending on market conditions and policy design.
  • Off-balance-sheet financing can reduce the financial burden on governments and improve project viability.

4. Local Manufacturing Capabilities

• MENA Region:
  • Local manufacturing of CST components is still in early stages.
  • Roadmaps are proposed for the development of EPC, glass mirrors, and metal structures.
  • Economic benefits include job creation and technology transfer.
• South Africa:
  • Potential for local manufacturing exists, especially in glass mirrors and metal structures.
  • SWOT analysis highlights strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for local CST development.
  • Estimated job creation up to 2020 is provided for different CST technologies.

5. Procurement Practices and PPA Structures

• Tendering Models:
  • Cost-based, feasibility-based, policy-based, and value-based selection criteria are evaluated.
  • Recommended bid selection criteria include cost, technical feasibility, and local content.
• Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs):
  • Key elements include dispatch agreements, energy and capacity payments, renewable energy credits, and risk mitigation clauses.
  • Recommended PPA structures aim to balance risk and reward for developers and utilities.
• Challenges:
  • Inconsistent policy instruments and lack of coordination between state and central levels in India.
  • Uncertainty in tariff levels and PPA structures in South Africa.
  • Need for clear and stable regulatory frameworks to attract investment.

Recommendations

• Tailored Incentive Frameworks: Incentive schemes should be adapted to the specific economic and regulatory conditions of each country.
• Promote Local Manufacturing: Encouraging local production of CST components can reduce costs and create economic opportunities.
• Improve Procurement Practices: Use of reverse auction mechanisms and clear PPA structures can enhance cost-effectiveness and investor confidence.
• Enhance Policy Coordination: Better alignment between state and central government policies is necessary for a cohesive approach to CST development.
• Support for Emerging Markets: The World Bank Group (WBG) and Clean Technology Fund (CTF) are playing a key role in supporting CST projects in developing countries.

Conclusion

This report underscores the importance of regulatory and financial incentives in scaling up CST in developing countries. It highlights the potential for cost reduction through local manufacturing, the role of competitive procurement, and the need for well-designed PPA structures. The findings are intended to guide policymakers, stakeholders, and investors in developing effective strategies for CST deployment.