20241030-农银国际证券-每天导读_4页_654kb

Market Update Summary

Stock Markets

• US: NYCADP employment data showed ADP jobs changed in October. Consumer confidence index reached its highest since March 2021. Pending home sales and NAR figures indicated a cooling housing market. DAX index declined on Euro Stoxx concerns. CRB index indicated mixed commodity trends
• Asia: China's CSI 300 and Hang Seng rose, with Hang Seng leading. CSI 50 up 0.43%, H-shares outperformed A-shares. Taiwan's TAIEX increased due to policy stabilizers.
• Europe: Euro Stoxx50 down, with DAX and FTSE100 dropping most. Italy's FTSE MIB showed recovery in Q3.

Key Economic Data

• US: Consumer confidence soared, while JOLTS jobs decreased to 2021 levels.
• China: Nation-wide social logistics increased by 56% YoY in Q3. New energy vehicles procurement targets announced by central agency.
• Commodities: Crude oil and copper prices surged. Cotton saw reduced supply concerns but is expected to remain volatile.

Highlights & Notes

• US-EU Relations: High inflation may lead to euro depreciation against USD.
• Apple Supply Chain: iPhone exports from India increased 33% over 6 months.
• Renewable Energy: Significant investments planned for electric vehicle adoption in China.
• Recruitment: China's civil service exam registration exceeded 34 million candidates.

Diverging Markets

• Northeast Asia showed variable growth rates and policy adjustments. Notable divergences in regional currencies and tech sector performance. Projections for energy market over the next 6 months point to recession-like conditions in some economies.

全球市场动态呈现结构性分化格局。美国股市三大指数仅道指下跌，美国就业数据改善与高通胀形成矛盾。欧洲主要股市集体走低，地缘政治风险抬高增长预期。亚太市场表现不一，中美股市分化，台股表现突出。欧美央行仍未达成协调政策，失业率与通胀数据存在显著差异。能源与工业金属领域景气度分化明显，供给端政策变化反映在周期性波动中。