斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所-Relations-between-Afghanistan-and-Central-Asian-states-after-2014_-Incentives-Constraints-and-Prospects_40页_377kb

Summary of "Relations between Afghanistan and Central Asian States after 2014: Incentives, Constraints and Prospects"

Core Content

This report, authored by Nargis Kassenova, examines the evolving relationships between Afghanistan and Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) in the context of the post-2014 security transition in Afghanistan. It analyzes the incentives and constraints that shape these relations, and explores the prospects for regional cooperation and dialogue.

Main Views

• Security Concerns: All Central Asian states are worried about the potential spillover of instability from Afghanistan, including increased terrorist activities, the spread of radical Islamist ideas, drug trafficking, and refugee flows.
• Regional Cooperation: Central Asian states have been involved in various multilateral security frameworks and regional economic projects, aiming to address shared security challenges and enhance connectivity.
• Diverse Policies: Despite common security concerns, Central Asian states have differing approaches and policies toward Afghanistan, influenced by their unique geopolitical, ethnic, and economic contexts.
• Role of External Actors: The United States, NATO, and Russia have played significant roles in shaping the security and political landscape of Afghanistan and its relations with Central Asia.
• Economic Ties: Central Asian states have sought to increase economic and trade links with Afghanistan, using it as a bridge to South Asia, although skepticism about the feasibility of these plans has grown.
• Multilateral Contributions: Central Asian states have contributed to military and reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan, particularly through infrastructure and logistical support.

Key Information

Central Asian States and Their Roles

• Kazakhstan: Does not share a border with Afghanistan and is less vulnerable to its security spillovers. It has supported the CSTO and engaged in multi-vector foreign policy, seeking cooperation with the US and NATO. It has also contributed to the Northern Distribution Network (NDN) and is enhancing its Caspian Sea port capacity.
• Kyrgyzstan: Has weak and porous borders with Tajikistan, making it moderately exposed to Afghanistan's instability. It has participated in CSTO arrangements and expressed interest in strategic partnerships with Russia. It allowed the use of its Manas airbase by the US and coalition forces, but later decided to close it in 2014.
• Tajikistan: Shares a long border with Afghanistan and has the strongest ethnic ties with the Afghan population. It has been heavily dependent on Russian military and economic support. It also has historical connections with Afghanistan from the 1992–97 civil war.
• Turkmenistan: Has a porous border with Afghanistan and was initially neutral toward the Afghan conflict. It has been involved in the TAPI gas pipeline project and has increased its participation in regional cooperation frameworks.
• Uzbekistan: Shares a relatively short border with Afghanistan but has been highly concerned about security threats, particularly from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). It has had a complex relationship with the US and NATO, including allowing the use of the Karshi-Khanabad (K2) base and the Termez land corridor.

Military and Reconstruction Contributions

• Central Asian states contributed to the US-led Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) and NATO-led ISAF operations in Afghanistan.
• They provided logistical and infrastructure support, including overflight rights, bases, and transit corridors.
• The Northern Distribution Network (NDN) became a critical supply route after Pakistan blocked the southern route in 2011.
• The report highlights that while Central Asian states have been willing to support logistical efforts, they have not joined the military effort directly.

Constraints and Prospects

• Constraints: Central Asian states face limitations in their ability to influence the situation in Afghanistan due to their limited capacity, lack of trust, and complex intra-regional politics.
• Prospects: Despite these constraints, the report suggests that regional cooperation and dialogue can continue, and Central Asian states may play a role as mediators and interlocutors in the region.
• Geopolitical Shifts: The withdrawal of ISAF is seen as a potential signal of a new geopolitical shift in Central Asia, particularly in terms of the balance of power and the role of regional actors.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while the security situation in Afghanistan poses challenges, the region has the potential to develop new forms of cooperation and dialogue. Central Asian states, despite their differences, can continue to play a key role in the stabilization and security of Afghanistan and the broader region. The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the complex interplay of interests, vulnerabilities, and geopolitical dynamics in shaping these relations.