德勤-2018年全球生命科学发展趋势（英文）-2018-41页-1mb

Summary of Deloitte's 2018 Global Life Sciences Outlook

Core Content

Deloitte's 2018 Global Life Sciences Outlook outlines the transformative opportunities and challenges facing the life sciences industry in the context of the fourth industrial revolution. The report emphasizes the need for companies to embrace, build, and grow in response to rapid technological, economic, and geopolitical changes.

Main Viewpoints

• Technological Innovation: Emerging technologies such as AI, 3D printing, and blockchain are reshaping the industry. These technologies are accelerating drug discovery, improving data management, and enabling personalized medicine.
• Geopolitical Shifts: Tax reforms in the US and Brexit are influencing the industry. The US tax law changes are expected to impact corporate tax rates, repatriation of foreign earnings, and the cost structure of companies.
• Market Dynamics: The pharmaceutical market is expected to grow, with prescription drug sales increasing at 6.5% CAGR to $1.06 trillion by 2022. The orphan drug market is also projected to nearly double, reaching $209 billion by 2022.
• R&D Challenges and Opportunities: R&D returns remain a challenge, but advancements in technology are expected to improve the efficiency and speed of clinical development. The industry is also seeing a shift in R&D focus towards personalized medicine and rare diseases.
• M&A Trends: M&A activity is expected to increase in 2018, driven by reduced uncertainty, strong capital markets, and the need for industry consolidation. Non-traditional, technology-oriented acquisitions are becoming more common.
• Regulatory Evolution: Regulators are adapting to the rise of digital health technologies, with the FDA and EU exploring new frameworks for approvals and data management. The FDA's Pre-Cert program and the EU's evolving regulatory landscape are key developments.

Key Information

Economic Overview

• Health Life Sciences: Includes biopharmaceuticals, medical technology, genomics, diagnostics, and digital health. The sector is growing due to technological advancements and increasing patient expectations.
• Pharmaceutical Growth: Global prescription drug sales are expected to grow at 6.5% CAGR to $1.06 trillion by 2022. Generics will continue to grow, making up 29.2% of total pharmaceutical sales by 2022.
• Orphan Drugs: The orphan drug market is projected to reach $209 billion by 2022. Despite high costs, these drugs are expected to continue facing pricing scrutiny. The US tax reform reduces orphan-drug credits by 40%, but the market remains strategically important due to its unique benefits.
• Biologics and Biosimilars: Biologics are expected to account for over 25% of the pharmaceutical market by 2020. Biosimilars are gaining traction, especially in emerging markets, with significant cost savings. The Asia-Pacific region, particularly China, is a key area for biosimilar development.
• Therapeutic Trends: Oncology leads in sales and is expected to account for 17.5% of prescription drug and OTC sales by 2022. Other areas with high growth include immunosuppressants, dermatologicals, and anti-coagulants.
• Personalized Medicine: The global market is forecast to reach $2.4 trillion by 2022, growing at 11.8% CAGR. Real-world data and AI are accelerating the development of personalized therapies.
• MedTech Growth: Medtech sales are expected to grow at 5.1% CAGR to $521.9 billion by 2022. In vitro diagnostics will remain the largest segment. R&D spending is projected to increase to $33.5 billion by 2022.
• M&A Trends: M&A activity is expected to rise in 2018 due to reduced uncertainty, strong capital markets, and the need for industry consolidation. Non-traditional and technology-driven acquisitions are becoming more prevalent.
• Regulatory Developments: The FDA is working on new frameworks for digital health and regenerative therapies. The EU is also adapting to new regulatory environments, particularly post-Brexit.

Strategic Recommendations

• Embrace Exponential Change: Companies should invest in AI, automation, and data analytics to drive innovation and efficiency.
• Build Adaptive Organizations: Developing flexible structures and cultures of courage will be essential to navigating uncertainty.
• Enhance Data Integrity: Leveraging data effectively is crucial for maximizing value and improving patient outcomes.
• Focus on Patient Trust and Centricity: Prioritizing patient needs and building trust through personalized care and transparency will be key.
• Adopt Smart Regulatory Approaches: Engaging with regulators and embracing new frameworks will help companies navigate the evolving landscape.
• Grow Through Partnerships: Collaborating with technology firms and other industry players can provide access to expertise and new business models.

Conclusion

The life sciences industry is at a pivotal moment, with exponential technological changes, shifting geopolitical landscapes, and evolving regulatory environments. Companies that adapt to these changes, invest in innovation, and build flexible, data-driven organizations are likely to thrive in the coming years.