2003年-世界发展银行全球_Saint_Kitts_and_Nevis_-_OECS_Fiscal_Issues___Policies_to_Achieve_Fiscal_Sustainability_and_Improve_Efficiency_and_Equity_of_Public_Expenditures_162页_11mb

报告摘要

Geography and Economy: Saint Kitts and Nevis is a two-island federation in the Eastern Caribbean with a population of about 45,000, of which 75% reside in St. Kitts. It has a per capita GNI of US$6,980 in 2003.
Economic Structure: Traditionally reliant on sugar production and export, the economy has shifted toward services, particularly tourism, due to declining trade preferences for sugar.
Economic Vulnerability: The economy is highly vulnerable to exogenous shocks such as hurricanes, which have caused significant damage and slowed growth. In 2002, it experienced its first economic contraction in almost 20 years.
Currency and Exchange Rate: The country uses the Eastern Caribbean Dollar (EC$), pegged to the US$ at EC$2.70 per US$1 since 1976. It is part of the ECCU, sharing a common central bank (ECCB) and currency with other OECS members and territories.
Fiscal Challenges: The country faces a growing fiscal deficit and public debt, with the CG primary deficit increasing from 3.3% of GDP in 1995 to 10.8% in 2002. The debt-to-GDP ratio rose from 51.5% to 104.4%, and interest expenditure increased from 2.1% to 7.6% of GDP.

Deficit and Debt Trends: The fiscal position of the CG has weakened since 1995, primarily due to rising wage bills, capital expenditures (linked to hurricane recovery), and election-related spending.
Fiscal Sustainability Risk: The short-term fiscal sustainability adjustment required in 2003 is estimated at 14–16% of GDP, with an additional 2–3% needed to ensure public sector sustainability.
Adjustment Measures: Key recommendations include expenditure cuts, particularly in government positions (both established and non-established), containment of capital spending, and closing unprofitable public enterprises like the St. Kitts Sugar Manufacturing Company (SSMC).
Privatization Option: Selling government assets may help reduce the fiscal adjustment burden, but privatization should focus on improving efficiency and quality rather than just revenue generation.
Fiscal Convergence: The ECCB has set fiscal convergence criteria, including a debt-to-GDP ceiling of 60%, which requires further fiscal consolidation and public sector reform.

Cyclical Impact on Fiscal Accounts: The fiscal accounts are more volatile than GDP, with significant fluctuations in grants, capital expenditure, and capital revenue.
Procyclical Fiscal Policy: In developed economies, fiscal policy is typically procyclical, meaning it expands during booms and contracts during downturns.
Hurricane Effects on GDP: Between 1980 and 2002, six hurricanes impacted the economy. GDP contracted in three of these years and expanded in the others, with the most severe contraction in 1983 and the most significant expansion in 1989 (Hurricane Hugo).
Fiscal Cyclical Adjustment: The report highlights the cyclical components of fiscal accounts, showing that the fiscal policy needs to be adjusted to counteract these fluctuations and ensure long-term stability.

Legal and Institutional Framework: The budget process is governed by the Constitution and the Finance (Administration) Act, with the Ministry of Finance responsible for budget preparation, execution, and monitoring.
Budget Variance: There are significant variances between actual and budgeted recurrent expenditures, particularly in the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Works. These variances are attributed to various factors such as unplanned spending and inefficiencies.
Accountability: The report emphasizes the need for improved budget accountability, including better monitoring and oversight mechanisms to ensure that public funds are used effectively and efficiently.

Federal Government PSIP: The PSIP outlines medium-term investment plans, with a focus on growth and poverty reduction. Capital expenditures are primarily funded by grants and concessional loans.
Sectoral Composition: Capital spending is distributed across various sectors, with a notable share allocated to infrastructure and public services.
Realization Rate: The realization rate of capital expenditures has been inconsistent, with some projects not being fully funded or executed.
Nevis Island Administration PSIP: The PSIP for Nevis is smaller and focuses on local development. It also highlights the need for improved efficiency in public investments.

Employment Trends: There has been a decline in government employment, with a focus on reducing the number of both established and non-established positions.
Compensation Issues: Public sector wages are higher than private sector wages, and there is a need to improve efficiency and reduce costs.
Civil Service Reform: The report references civil service downsizing in Guyana as a potential model for St. Kitts and Nevis to reduce public sector costs and improve service delivery.

Education Outcomes: Primary education is universal, but tertiary education faces challenges in financing and efficiency. The report suggests reforms to improve education delivery and reduce costs.
Health Outcomes: The under-5 mortality rate has declined from 36 per 1,000 in 1990 to 24 per 1,000 in 2001. However, the rate is expected to slow down from 2001 to 2015, and the HIV/AIDS targets remain uncertain due to limited baseline data.
Health Spending: Health spending is a significant portion of public expenditure, with hospital costs making up a large share of recurrent health spending. The report calls for more efficient use of health resources.

Poverty and Indigence: Approximately one in three individuals in Saint Kitts and Nevis is poor, with 11% in St. Kitts and 17% in Nevis being indigent.
Social Protection Programs: The government has implemented various social protection programs, including the Basic Needs Trust Fund (BNTF) and the Student Education and Learning Fund (SELF). These programs aim to provide safety nets for vulnerable populations.
Recommendations: The report recommends strengthening social protection programs to better target the poor and improve their effectiveness in the face of economic shocks.

Key Challenges: The government must tighten fiscal policy, increase efficiency in public investments, and reform social protection to ensure fiscal sustainability and improve public service delivery.
Recommendations: The report includes a matrix of specific policy recommendations aimed at achieving fiscal sustainability, improving social service delivery, and reforming social protection programs.
Long-Term Outlook: The medium-term growth potential is estimated at 3–4%, contingent on the completion of major infrastructure projects, a recovery in tourism, and the opening of new facilities like the Marriott Resort. However, external risks such as prolonged recession, political instability, and natural disasters remain significant threats.

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