战略与国际研究中心-Securing-Peace_-An-Action-Strategy-for-Post_44页_889kb
报告摘要
Summary of "Securing Peace: An Action Strategy for Sri Lanka" (June 2004)
Core Content
This report, prepared by a group of graduate student researchers at Princeton University and sponsored by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), outlines an action strategy for Sri Lanka to transition from the current ceasefire to a more stable and peaceful post-conflict period. The authors emphasize the need for immediate and long-term steps to ensure the ceasefire remains intact and to lay the foundation for lasting peace.
Main Objectives
- To identify key priorities for immediate action to secure the ceasefire and promote peace.
- To provide a practical and focused action plan for both Sri Lankan and international actors.
- To highlight the importance of constitutional reform, federalism, and military restructuring in the peace process.
Key Issues and Threats to Lasting Peace
Political Power Struggle
- The Sri Lankan Government is dominated by a power struggle between the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the United National Party (UNP).
- This conflict has created political gridlock, undermining the peace process.
- The recent ruling alliance, the United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA), includes the SLFP and the JVP, which are historically opposed to significant concessions to the LTTE.
- The UNP, despite being pro-peace, has lost its parliamentary majority, further complicating political stability.
Culture of Fear
- A pervasive culture of fear persists, especially in the Northern and Eastern Provinces.
- This fear is rooted in the trauma of the civil war, which lasted 21 years and resulted in over 65,000 deaths and 800,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs).
- The fear is exacerbated by the presence of armed groups, the destruction of infrastructure, and the lack of trust between communities.
Ethnic Polarization
- Ethnic tensions, particularly between Sinhalese and Tamils, have been a major driver of conflict.
- The LTTE, originally seeking an independent Tamil state, has shifted toward a federalist solution, but this has not resolved the deep-seated mistrust.
- The Sinhalese population in the South has been resistant to peace efforts, fearing that concessions to the LTTE undermine national identity.
Shallow Peace Constituency
- The peace constituency in Sri Lanka is weak and fragmented.
- Many political leaders view peace as a tool for gaining support rather than a genuine goal.
- This undermines the legitimacy of peace efforts and creates obstacles to meaningful reconciliation.
Key Recommendations
Immediate Steps
- Constitutional Reform: Address the institutional gridlock between the President and Prime Minister by reforming the constitution to allow for a more functional governance structure.
- Federalism: Implement a federalist model that grants autonomy to the North and East while maintaining national unity.
- Military Restructuring: Begin demilitarization and integrate rebel elements into the security framework to reduce tensions and build trust.
- Rebuilding Infrastructure: Focus on restoring essential services, including sanitation and road access, to improve living conditions in affected regions.
- Security Measures: Establish a secure environment to protect civilians and facilitate peace talks.
Long-Term Strategies
- Sustained Political Commitment: Ensure that all parties, including the LTTE, demonstrate patience and restraint to maintain the peace process.
- Justice and Reconciliation: Address the legacy of conflict through mechanisms such as truth commissions and legal reforms.
- Economic Development: Promote economic recovery and development to reduce poverty and unemployment, especially in the North and East.
- Community Engagement: Encourage dialogue and cooperation among diverse groups to build a more inclusive society.
Key Facts and Statistics
| Category | Data |
|---|---|
| Total Population | 19,742,439 |
| Religion Distribution | Buddhist: 69.3%, Hindu: 15.5%, Muslim: 7.5%, Christian: 6.9% |
| Ethnicity Distribution | Sinhalese: 74%, Tamil: 18%, Muslim: 8%, Other: 1% |
| Lives Lost in Civil War (18 years) | 65,000+ |
| LTTE Claims of Lives Lost | 17,637 (as of 2002) |
| Number of IDPs from North-East | 800,000+ |
| Tamil IDPs | 78% |
| Military Expenditure as % of GDP (2001) | 3.9% |
| Defense Spending per Capita (1998) | $51 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | $848 |
| Poverty Rate | 25% |
| Unemployment Rate (Nationwide) | ~10% |
| Unemployment Rate (North-East) | 25% |
| Sanitation Access (Nationwide) | 72% |
| Sanitation Access (North-East) | 25% |
| Years without a Road to Jaffna | 12 |
| US$ Committed for Reconstruction (Tokyo Donors Conference, 2003) | 4.5 billion |
Conclusion
The report underscores the complexity of the Sri Lankan conflict and the need for a comprehensive, inclusive, and sustainable peace strategy. It emphasizes that the current ceasefire is a fragile opportunity that must be protected through political cooperation, institutional reform, and community engagement. Without addressing the root causes of the conflict and building trust among all communities, lasting peace in Sri Lanka remains elusive. The authors hope that this report will contribute to the ongoing peace efforts by providing a clear and actionable roadmap for both domestic and international actors.
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