战略与国际研究中心-The-E3-Initiative_-The-United-States-and-ASEAN-Take-a-Step-in-the-Right-Direction_16页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Document: Southeast Asia from the Corner of 18th & K Streets

Core Content

The document outlines key developments in Southeast Asia in late 2012, focusing on the E3 Initiative (Expanded Economic Engagement) launched by the United States and ASEAN, as well as news and events from various countries in the region, including Myanmar, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, and Laos.

The E3 Initiative is a significant step in U.S.-ASEAN economic cooperation, aimed at boosting trade and investment through a structured framework. It supports the U.S. rebalancing toward Asia and helps ASEAN countries prepare for high-standard trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The initiative includes four main priorities: trade facilitation, information and communications technology (ICT) principles, investment policy guidelines, and harmonized regional standards.

The document also highlights ongoing political, economic, and social challenges in the region, including human rights issues, trade disputes, environmental concerns, and internal political dynamics.

Main Points of the E3 Initiative

Objective: To expand trade and investment cooperation between the U.S. and ASEAN, supporting the U.S. rebalancing strategy and ASEAN's economic integration goals.
Key Priorities:
- Trade Facilitation: Negotiating an ASEAN-U.S. trade facilitation agreement to simplify customs procedures and increase transparency.
- ICT Principles: Developing guidelines for policymakers on cross-border information flow, local content requirements, and regulatory roles.
- Investment Policies: Addressing investor protection, non-discrimination, transparency, and market access, with a focus on resolving issues faced by U.S. companies in countries like Indonesia.
- Harmonized Standards: Supporting small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and environmental standards across the region.
Challenges:
- Lack of capacity in less-developed ASEAN countries like Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar.
- Protectionist policies in some ASEAN nations, such as Indonesia.
- ASEAN's existing trade initiatives, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), may compete with the E3.
Implementation:
- The E3 is supported by the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA).
- U.S. officials are working to increase engagement with ASEAN countries through events like the ASEAN trade ministers' roadshow in 2013 and the U.S.-ASEAN business summit in Brunei.
- The E3 aims to reduce anxiety among ASEAN capitals about entering high-standard trade talks with the U.S.

Country-Specific Highlights

Myanmar

Mine Protests: Demonstrations against the government over the Letpadaung copper mine, with the president appointing an inquiry commission.
Census Bill: Parliament passed a bill for a national census in 2014, with concerns about whether the Rohingya minority will be counted.
Rakhine State: Over 1,100 people were detained after communal violence, with most being Rohingya Muslims.
Kachin Conflict: Escalation of fighting between the army and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), with the KIA claiming to have recovered Swedish-made weapons.
Peace Talks: A landmark agreement was signed with the Chin National Front (CNF), marking the first cease-fire agreement to recognize ethnic groups' rights to self-determination.

Indonesia

Human Rights Violations: Police and corporations were named top violators, with over 20% increase in reported abuses in 2012.
Asylum Seekers: A deal with Australia to allow rescue operations in Indonesian airspace was delayed until early 2013.
Traffic Policy: The Jakarta governor introduced a license plate-based traffic restriction to reduce congestion.
Corruption Scandals: The Democratic Party lost ground after the resignation of a key minister due to a major graft investigation.
Bumi and Bakrie: Bumi Plc is likely to sell its stake to the Bakrie family, despite opposition from Nat Rothschild.

Thailand

Legal Proceedings: Former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his deputy Suthep Thaugsuban denied murder charges related to the 2010 crackdown.
Constitutional Amendments: Opposition parties plan to hold a referendum on amending the 2007 post-coup constitution, amid fears of further violence.

Philippines

Deportation of Migrants: Over a million illegal migrants in Thailand face deportation by December 14.
Typhoon Bopha: Caused widespread devastation in Mindanao, with over 1,000 deaths and significant damage to the banana industry.
Bilateral Strategic Dialogue: The U.S. and the Philippines agreed to increase U.S. military presence in the country.
Reproductive Health Bill: Passed by Congress, facing strong opposition from the Roman Catholic Church.
Sin Tax Reform: A bill to increase taxes on alcohol and tobacco products was approved.
Peace Talks with MILF: Resumed in Malaysia, with a focus on an autonomous Moroccan region called Bangsamoro.

Vietnam

Domestic Shipping Policy: Vietnam will restrict foreign shipping companies from operating in its domestic market.
Economic Risks: The World Bank warned of medium-term instability due to inflation, bad debt, and low foreign exchange reserves.
Coal-Fired Power Plant: Construction began on a $1.4 billion plant in the Mekong Delta.
Tax Avoidance Investigation: The General Taxation Department is investigating Coca-Cola and PepsiCo for alleged "price transferring" practices.

Malaysia

Petronas Takeover: Canada approved a $5.3 billion bid by Malaysia's Petronas for Progress Energy.
Myanmar Refugees: Malaysia accepted 40 Myanmar refugees after Singapore denied their entry.
Lynas Corp: Government ministers demanded the export of rare earths waste or the revocation of its license.
Bribery Survey: Malaysia ranked last in Transparency International's Bribe Payers Survey.
Industrial Growth: Malaysia's industrial output saw 5.8% growth in October, leading to a decision to keep interest rates at 3% until mid-2013.

Singapore

Speaker Resignation: Speaker Michael Palmer resigned amid a sex scandal.
EU Free Trade Talks: Singapore and the European Union completed negotiations on a free trade pact, set to be signed in spring 2013.

South China Sea

Anti-China Protests: Occurred in Vietnam due to territorial disputes and incidents involving Chinese fishermen.
Philippines Postpones Bids: Suspended bids for three oil and gas blocks in the South China Sea, raising concerns among companies.

Laos

Crime and Trafficking: Vulnerable to organized crime due to its location and shared borders with multiple countries.
UNODC Engagement: The UN is working with Laos to reduce illicit opium poppy cultivation and improve food security.

Key Takeaways

The E3 Initiative is a strategic move to enhance U.S.-ASEAN trade and investment ties, with the potential to lead to a U.S.-ASEAN FTA.
The U.S. and ASEAN are working on trade facilitation, ICT principles, investment policies, and harmonized standards to build stronger economic cooperation.
Myanmar faces political and social challenges, including protests, refugee issues, and ongoing conflicts.
Indonesia has seen a rise in human rights violations and is dealing with issues related to asylum seekers and corruption.
Thailand is grappling with legal and constitutional issues, including the 2010 crackdown and the potential for violence from constitutional reforms.
Vietnam and Malaysia are dealing with economic policy changes, environmental concerns, and corruption investigations.
Singapore is making progress in free trade agreements and bribery reduction, while also dealing with political scandals.
The South China Sea remains a source of territorial disputes, with Vietnam and the Philippines facing anti-China protests and bidding delays.
Laos is under pressure to combat organized crime and illicit drug production.