挪威国家石油公司-《2050年世界能源视角》（2018版）（英文）-2018-60页-6mb

Equinor's Energy Perspectives 2018 Summary

Core Content

Equinor's Energy Perspectives 2018 provides a long-term macro and market outlook for global energy markets up to 2050, analyzing three distinct scenarios: Reform, Renewal, and Rivalry. These scenarios explore different drivers of change in the energy system, including economic development, climate policy, market forces, technology, energy efficiency, and geopolitics. The report aims to offer insights into the future of energy, emphasizing the need for a sustainable energy transition while acknowledging the challenges and uncertainties involved.

Main Views

• Global Energy Demand Will Grow: Despite the push for sustainability, global energy demand is expected to rise due to population growth and economic development.
• Energy Transition is Uncertain: While there are signs of progress, the transition to low-carbon energy is not yet fast enough. Fossil fuel demand is still increasing, and emissions are rising again.
• Sustainability is a Shared Goal: Equinor's strategy, Always safe, High value, Low carbon, is designed to navigate the uncertainties and support a sustainable energy future.
• Three Scenarios Reflect Different Futures:
  • Reform: Driven by market forces and technology, with slower growth in emissions and a gradual decline in fossil fuel share.
  • Renewal: A policy-driven scenario aiming for a sustainable future with emissions below the 2°C target. It involves significant investments in low-carbon technologies.
  • Rivalry: A volatile scenario where geopolitical tensions and slow policy action dominate, leading to higher fossil fuel use and slower progress toward sustainability.

Key Information

Global Population and Economic Growth

• By 2050, the global population is projected to reach 9.8 billion.
• Average global economic growth ranges from 1.9% to 2.7% per year, resulting in a global GDP between 1.9 and 2.5 times that of 2015 levels.

Energy Demand and Intensity

• Total Primary Energy Demand (TPED) in 2050 is 6% lower in Renewal, 25% higher in Reform, and 30% higher in Rivalry compared to 2015.
• Energy intensity improves in all scenarios, but varies from 1.1% to 2.8% per year, with Renewal showing the most significant improvement.

Fossil Fuel Share in TPED

• In Renewal, fossil fuels account for 51% of TPED by 2050.
• In Reform, fossil fuels account for 70%.
• In Rivalry, fossil fuels account for 77%.

Oil and Gas Demand

• Oil demand in 2050 varies from 59 mbd (Renewal) to 122 mbd (Rivalry).
• Peak oil demand occurs in 2020 in Renewal, in 2030 in Reform, and continues to grow in Rivalry.
• Gas demand in 2050 ranges from 3,300 Bcm (Renewal) to 4,800 Bcm (Reform), with Rivalry slightly lower than Reform.

Renewable Energy Growth

• New Renewable Energy Sources (RES), particularly solar and wind, are expected to grow significantly.
• Solar and wind generation capacity is projected to increase at 4.6% to 7.4% annually, reaching 24% to 49% of global electricity generation by 2050.
• Investments in new renewable capacity will be substantial, ranging from 3,600 to 8,300 GW additional generation capacity compared to 2015.

CO₂ Emissions

• Global energy-related CO₂ emissions range from 12.5 Gt to 38 Gt in 2050, compared to 32 Gt in 2015.
• In Renewal, emissions are expected to fall to 31 Gt by 2050, aligning with the 2°C target.
• In Reform, emissions peak at 35 Gt in the mid-2020s before declining to 31 Gt by 2050.
• In Rivalry, emissions are expected to grow, reflecting a slower energy transition.

Climate Policy and CCUS

• Renewal is the only scenario that aligns with the Paris Agreement goals.
• CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilisation, and Storage) is a key technology in Renewal, but its role is limited in other scenarios.
• Two sensitivity analyses are introduced for Renewal: one assumes no new CCUS capacity beyond current projects, and another delays climate policy action until 2025.

Geopolitical Impact

• Geopolitical tensions in Rivalry will lead to higher fossil fuel use, slower technology adoption, and less emphasis on sustainability.
• Energy balances will shift, potentially making some countries and regions losers in the transition, requiring compensation.

Digitalisation and Cyber Security

• Digitalisation is transforming energy systems, improving efficiency and enabling new services.
• Cyber security is becoming a critical economic concern, with increasing threats and costs. The market is expected to grow from USD 105 bn in 2015 to USD 180 bn by 2021.

Conclusion

Equinor's Energy Perspectives 2018 highlights the importance of strategic investments, policy interventions, and technological advancements in shaping a sustainable energy future. The three scenarios illustrate the wide range of possible outcomes, emphasizing the need for coordinated global efforts to accelerate the energy transition and mitigate climate change.