美联储-估计的新凯恩斯主义模型中的内生劳动力供给：名义刚性与实际刚性（英）-2023-59页_2mb

Endogenous Labor Supply in an Estimated New-Keynesian Model: Nominal versus Real Rigidities

Summary

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with financial frictions, search and matching frictions, and endogenous labor supply decisions covering extensive (labor force participation) and intensive (hours worked) margins. The model features:

• Novel wage rigidity decomposition quantifying relative importance of nominal and real rigidities
• Generic recruiting cost function distinguishing pre-match and post-match costs
• Wealth effects on labor supply via extended Jaimovich-Rebelo preferences

Key empirical findings:

• Low nominal wage rigidity (λ_w) and high real wage rigidity (R_w) best explain the sluggish labor market recovery and missing disinflation during the Great Recession
• Post-match costs predominantly drive inflation volatility and labor market dynamics
• Financial frictions significantly contribute to the observed investment decline and inflation response

The model outperforms alternatives in forecasting labor market variables (unemployment, vacancies) and inflation using data through 2008Q4, with the anticipated ELB constraint playing a crucial role. Analysis demonstrates:

• No single labor market indicator (unemployment rate, LFPR, etc.) fully captures labor market slack
• The first principal component of all labor market gaps serves as a leading indicator of recessions

The study underscores the necessity of incorporating both participation and hours margins for accurate labor market dynamics and the crucial role of pre-match/post-match cost differences in shaping inflation and unemployment dynamics during business cycles.