2004年-世界发展银行全球_Phasing_Out_Polluting_Motorcycles_in_Bangkok___Policy_Design_by_Using_Contingent_Valuation_Surveys_19页_226kb

Summary of "Phasing out Polluting Motorcycles in Bangkok: Policy Design by Using Contingent Valuation Surveys"

Core Content

This working paper presents a contingent valuation (CV) study conducted in Bangkok to assess the effectiveness of economic incentives in phasing out polluting motorcycles. The research focuses on understanding the willingness to pay (WTP) and willingness to accept (WTA) of motorcycle owners in response to proposed charges and compensations.

Main Policy Questions

• What are the appropriate charge levels or compensation amounts needed to reduce the number of polluting motorcycles on the road?
• How would motorcycle owners react to these financial instruments?

Key Findings

WTP and WTA Estimates

• Mean WTP: 580 Baht per year, with a minimum of 194 Baht and a maximum of 2060 Baht.
• Mean WTA: 6,650 Baht in total, or approximately 1,500 Baht per year over 4.5 years, with a range of 1,180 to 12,820 Baht.
• WTP Distribution: 80% of polluting motorcycle owners are willing to pay 320 Baht per year to continue using their motorcycles. At 720 Baht, only 20% would be willing to pay.
• WTA Distribution: 20% of motorcycle owners would accept a one-time compensation of 4,000 Baht, while 80% would give up their motorcycles at 9,000 Baht.

Charge and Compensation Effects

• A charge of 1000 Baht per year would result in 79% of polluting motorcycles being taken off the road.
• A charge of 460 Baht per year would lead to 50% of polluting motorcycle owners giving up their vehicles.
• A one-time compensation of 10,000 Baht would result in 50% of polluting motorcycles being removed from the streets.
• A compensation of 9,000 Baht would result in 80% of polluting motorcycles being taken off the road.

Survey Methodology

• Two three-day motorcycle emissions testing clinics were conducted in May and July 2000 in Bangkok.
• 1,500 motorcycles were tested in the first clinic, and 2,000 in the second.
• A stochastic contingent valuation approach was used to estimate WTP and WTA.
• Respondents were asked about their likelihood to continue using their motorcycles under various charges and compensations, with responses categorized into five levels: definitely yes, probably yes, not sure, probably not, and definitely not.

Determinants of WTP and WTA

• Household income negatively affects both WTP and WTA. Higher income leads to lower willingness to pay or accept.
• Fuel costs also negatively correlate with WTP and WTA. Higher fuel prices reduce the incentive to keep polluting motorcycles.
• Driving frequency (km/day) positively correlates with WTA. Those who drive more frequently require higher compensation to give up their motorcycles.
• Public transport usage (measured as "publicoft") negatively correlates with WTP. Frequent users of public transport are more likely to give up motorcycles with lower charges.
• Retired individuals have a higher WTP for keeping their motorcycles.

Policy Implications

• The stochastic CV survey provides valuable data for designing effective economic instruments to phase out polluting motorcycles.
• A charge of 460 Baht can reduce motorcycle use by 50%, while a charge of 1000 Baht can lead to 80% of polluting motorcycles being removed.
• A compensation of 10,000 Baht is needed to achieve 50% removal, and 9,000 Baht for 80% removal.
• The combination of charges and compensations (carrot and stick) is suggested as an effective policy tool.
• Economic growth and increased household income can drive the adoption of cleaner motorcycles.
• Fuel price increases can serve as an additional incentive for motorcycle owners to switch to cleaner vehicles.
• Public transit development is crucial in reducing reliance on polluting motorcycles.

Conclusion

• The study highlights the importance of using CV surveys to evaluate the effectiveness of economic incentives in reducing pollution from motorcycles.
• It underscores the need for enforced emission regulations and complementary economic policies to ensure the success of any incentive program.
• The results from the pilot trade-in project align closely with the estimated WTA values, validating the methodology used in the study.

Key Information

• Survey Sample: 231 motorcycle owners who failed the emission test were asked about WTP, while 191 were asked about WTA.
• Financial Incentives: The proposed compensation package includes a 3,000 Baht cash rebate, a 1,000–3,000 Baht discount on new purchases, and waivers of insurance charges.
• Emission Standards: The Thai Level 5 standards require a smoke opacity of 15% or less, CO levels of 3.5g/km or less, and HC + NOx levels of 1.8g/km or less.
• External Costs: Motorcycles contribute significantly to air pollution, health issues, and traffic congestion, which affects time and productivity loss in the city.

Economic and Environmental Impact

• Reducing PM10 levels by 10μg/m³ could yield 35–88 billion Baht in annual benefits to Bangkok residents.
• The study suggests that economic incentives are more effective than a complete ban in reducing polluting motorcycle usage, especially when combined with emission regulations and public transit development.