战略与国际研究中心-PONARS-Policy-Memo-031_3页_71kb

Clinton's Moscow Mission Summary

Core Content

This document, authored by Michael McFaul and published as a PONARS Policy Memo in August 1998, outlines the key issues and strategic considerations for President Bill Clinton during his upcoming visit to Moscow. It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a strong and constructive relationship with Russia in the post-Cold War era, despite the challenges and setbacks in the country's reform process.

Main Issues on the Agenda

• START II Treaty: A major arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia.
• NATO Expansion: A contentious issue involving Russia's perception of Western encroachment.
• Trade with Iran and Iraq: Concerns over Russia's economic ties with countries that are not aligned with Western interests.
• Religion Law: A new, restrictive law on religion that raises human rights concerns.

These issues reflect the traditional Cold War-era concerns of U.S.-Soviet relations, suggesting that the vision of a new strategic partnership has not materialized.

Key Arguments

• Russia's Transition is Not Complete: The document argues that Russia's transformation from a communist state to a democratic and market-oriented one is still ongoing, and the U.S. has a vested interest in its success.
• Economic Reform is Critical: Russia's market economy and electoral democracy are under threat. The IMF's financial assistance helped avert a major devaluation, but further structural reforms are necessary.
• Democracy Promotion is Essential: The U.S. should focus on reinforcing democratic institutions and values in Russia, rather than just engaging in symbolic gestures or superficial diplomacy.
• U.S. Leadership is Needed: Clinton is urged to take a firm stance with Russian leaders, encouraging them to uphold democratic norms and avoid authoritarian tendencies.
• Public Engagement is Important: The U.S. should connect with the Russian people through tangible support and education initiatives to build understanding and support for reform.

Recommendations for Clinton

• Focus on the Big Picture: Rather than addressing minor issues, Clinton should concentrate on the long-term stability of democracy and capitalism in Russia.
• Deliver a Tough-love Message: The U.S. should make it clear that future financial support will only be given if Russia continues with structural economic reforms.
• Promote Democratic Institutions: Expand programs that support the development of democratic institutions such as independent media, civil society, and rule of law.
• Engage with the Public: Clinton should visit local communities to explain the U.S. commitment to Russian reform and announce new assistance programs for those affected by economic hardship.
• Hold a Televised Seminar: Engage with Russian political groups (liberals, nationalists, communists) to promote democratic and market values.

Conclusion

The document stresses that the U.S. should not abandon Russia due to its current economic and political struggles. Instead, it calls for continued engagement, both with the Russian government and the public, to ensure that Russia remains on a path of peaceful democratization and market reform. McFaul argues that the U.S. has a significant stake in Russia's future and that policies of containment, isolation, or neglect could lead to a more dangerous geopolitical situation. The author concludes that Clinton's mission should be to reinforce the democratic and market-oriented trajectory of Russia, which is vital for global stability and the U.S.'s own national interests.