2012年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Ageing_and_Welfare_Systems_What_Have_We_Learned_88页_608kb

Summary of "AGEING AND WELFARE SYSTEMS: WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED? A Comparative EU-US Perspective"

Core Content

This document outlines the key findings and discussions from a conference held in Brussels on 24-25 January 2003, focusing on the implications of population ageing for the European Union and the United States. It provides an overview of demographic trends, economic consequences, and policy responses to the challenges posed by an ageing population, with a comparative EU-US perspective.

Main Points

1. Demographic Trends in Europe

• The European population is experiencing a significant demographic shift due to:
  • A secular decline in mortality leading to increased life expectancy.
  • A marked decrease in fertility since the 1970s, especially after the post-war baby boom.
• This results in a decline in the number of younger people entering the labour market and a rise in the elderly population.
• The demographic dependency ratio is expected to increase substantially, with a significant drop in the working-age population (up to 54 years) and a corresponding rise in the number of dependents (aged 65+).
• The economic dependency ratio (inactive to employed) will also be affected, though not necessarily in the same proportion as the demographic ratio.

2. Impact on Labour Markets

• The proportion of the life cycle devoted to work has decreased due to:
  • Longer education periods.
  • Extended retirement ages.
• The fall in the number of younger workers may not directly reduce unemployment, as different age groups are not perfect substitutes in the labour market.
• Cohort crowding out may lead to increased unemployment within specific age groups.
• The effect of migration on the labour market depends on wage and unemployment differentials:
  • A 1 percentage point increase in host country wages increases inward migration by 0.7 points.
  • A 1 percentage point increase in host country unemployment decreases inward migration by 0.25 points.
• Migration may help economic growth by improving the efficiency of the labour market, but not necessarily resolve the pension sustainability issue unless there is a significant influx of migrants.

3. Welfare System Sustainability

• Ageing poses a major challenge to the sustainability of welfare systems, especially pension systems.
• While pension expenditure is a key concern, health care spending is also expected to rise significantly.
• The net budgetary cost of ageing may be less than projected due to a reduction in child allowances and education spending.
• Second and third pillar pension schemes (private and occupational pensions) are being considered as tools to alleviate public pension pressures, though they may not be sufficient on their own.

4. EU Policy Response

• The European Commission has been actively involved in researching the economic consequences of ageing.
• The Economic Policy Committee has published reports on the impact of ageing on public pension systems and reform challenges.
• The European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes (ENEPRI) has conducted multiple workshops on the topic, including:
  • Health care and growth implications.
  • Social security and pension reform.
  • Generational accounting and intergenerational distribution.
  • Micro- and macro-econometric models for long-term analysis.
  • Ageing, skills, and labour markets.
  • Savings, capital flows, and welfare systems.

5. North American Perspective

• In North America, the ageing population is not as severe as in Europe and Japan.
• The United States has been proactive in addressing the issue, with:
  • The National Institute on Aging supporting extensive research.
  • The National Research Council and National Academy of Sciences initiating major studies.
  • A comprehensive review by the US Academy of Sciences’ Committee on Population in 2001, presented at an international workshop by the European Commission.

6. Policy Recommendations

• A holistic and integrated approach is necessary to address the challenges of ageing.
• Key policy actions include:
  • Fiscal discipline before the effects of ageing become severe.
  • Productivity growth and employment rate improvements, especially for older workers.
  • Analysis of health care spending and reforms to pension entitlements.
  • Encouragement of second and third pillar schemes through tax incentives or regulation.
• Restricting access to welfare for migrants or adopting selective migration policies may be considered.
• Immigration policies should be carefully evaluated to ensure they contribute to long-term economic sustainability rather than exacerbating existing challenges.

Key Information

• The EU15 population is projected to increase slightly until 2020 but then decline by about 3% by 2050.
• The proportion of elderly (65+) is expected to rise significantly, reaching 29.2% in the EU15 and 29.3% in new member states by 2050.
• The demographic dependency ratio is expected to increase due to the combination of rising life expectancy and falling working-age population.
• The Lisbon objectives aim to increase productivity and employment but may be undermined if migration and policy responses are not well-managed.
• The conference highlighted the need for interdisciplinary research, policy coordination, and long-term planning to address the challenges of an ageing society.

Conclusion

The conference underscores that ageing is a multifaceted challenge that affects economic growth, labour markets, welfare systems, and public finances. It calls for coordinated and proactive policy measures across both the EU and North America to ensure the sustainability of social systems and economic stability in the face of demographic change.