2018-物有所值_瓜地马拉森林景观恢复（英文版）-2mb

Summary of "Value for Money: Guatemala's Forest Landscape Restoration"

Core Content

This document presents a Value for Money (VfM) assessment of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) contributions to Guatemala's Forest Landscape Restoration (FLR) policy formulation processes between 2012 and 2016. The study uses a participatory, evidence-based expert workshop involving members of the National Forest Landscape Restoration Roundtable to quantify the impact and financial return of these efforts.

Main Objectives

• To evaluate the value for money of IUCN's FLR-related interventions in Guatemala.
• To stimulate discussions on how to systematically reflect on experiences and share lessons learned about delivering value through FLR.
• To provide evidence on the effectiveness and efficiency of FLR initiatives in the context of broader policy and programmatic goals.

Key Findings

IUCN's Contribution

• IUCN's overall contribution to Guatemala's FLR policy processes between 2012 and 2016 was 12%.
• The most significant contributions came from:
  • Government (45%)
  • FAO (11%)
  • Private sector (5%)
• Other actors, including NGOs and academia, accounted for 27%.
• IUCN's contribution typology included:
  • Convening (31%)
  • Technical support (25%)
  • Funding (20%)

Financial Return

• For every $1 invested in IUCN's FLR support in Guatemala between 2012 and 2016, the expected return on investment (EROI) over 35 years was calculated at $56.
• The net present value (NPV) of FLR in Guatemala, with PROBOSQUE incentives, was $712,052,318 over a 35-year period, using a 12% discount rate.
• IUCN's FLR-related costs in Guatemala between 2012 and 2016 totaled $1,537,134 (inflation-adjusted).

Policy Context

• The PROBOSQUE law, enacted in 2016, was a key outcome of the FLR policy processes.
• The study is part of the KNOWFOR program, a UK aid-funded initiative by DFID, which aimed to improve the understanding and use of forest-related knowledge internationally.
• KNOWFOR was a collaboration between IUCN, CIFOR, and PROFOR, focusing on knowledge creation and translation to influence policy and practice.

Methodology

• A participatory, evidence-based expert workshop was conducted to assess IUCN's contributions to the FLR policy process.
• The impact framework was used to analyze the causal linkages between past contributions and future benefits.
• The cost-benefit analysis was modified to account for uncertainties in social investments, and the EROI model was applied to quantify financial returns.
• A literature review and restoration economic modeling were also used to assess the value of FLR in Guatemala.

Main Viewpoints

• VfM is a critical tool for evaluating the efficiency and effectiveness of FLR initiatives, especially in resource-constrained environments.
• The KNOWFOR program was instrumental in creating a framework for assessing VfM, which IUCN has now committed to integrating into its monitoring and evaluation practices.
• IUCN's role was not just financial but also involved technical support, convening, and knowledge sharing, which are essential for policy development and implementation.
• While the study focuses on financial returns, it acknowledges the need to incorporate non-financial benefits such as carbon sequestration and social welfare in future assessments.

Key Information

Timeline and Process

• The FLR policy process in Guatemala was analyzed using a timeline evidence tool, which mapped key milestones and contributions.
• The PROBOSQUE incentives were a major factor in driving restoration efforts, with a budget allocation process and timeline developed through the workshop.

Economic Modeling

• The Restoration Opportunities Assessment Methodology (ROAM) was used to estimate the potential benefits of FLR in Guatemala.
• The net present value (NPV) and marginal NPV of FLR were calculated to assess its economic viability.
• The study highlights the importance of agroforestry systems, such as cacao on pastures, in improving land productivity and reducing poverty.

Limitations and Assumptions

• The value for money approach is exploratory and includes important assumptions.
• The final ROI of $56 should be interpreted with caution due to uncertainties in the model.
• Despite these limitations, the authors are confident in the finding that IUCN's work delivered value, as the estimated return greatly exceeded the investment.

Conclusion

This VfM assessment of IUCN's contributions to Guatemala's FLR policy processes provides evidence of the effectiveness of the organization's efforts in improving forest management and landscape restoration. It underscores the importance of knowledge sharing, convening, and technical support in achieving policy and programmatic outcomes. The study serves as a proof of concept for future assessments that may incorporate broader non-financial benefits to provide a more comprehensive understanding of VfM in FLR initiatives.