eia-美国计划的炼油厂停运：2018年第四季度（石油）（英文）-2018.10-30页

Planned Refinery Outages in the United States: Fourth-Quarter 2018 Summary

Core Content Overview

This report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides an analysis of planned refinery outages for the fourth quarter of 2018 and their potential impact on regional supply of petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. It evaluates the implications of these outages on supply adequacy, inventory levels, and market stability across the five Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs).

Main Findings

• National Supply Adequacy: EIA concludes that planned refinery outages in the U.S. are unlikely to cause a shortfall in petroleum product supply relative to expected demand, either nationally or regionally, from October through December 2018.
• Regional Impacts: The report assesses the effects of outages on each PADD, focusing on the adequacy of supply for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
• Planned Outages vs. Unplanned: The report does not attempt to estimate future unplanned outages, as they are unpredictable and vary widely.
• Inventory as a Buffer: Regional inventories are expected to be sufficient to offset production losses from planned outages in all regions.

Key Regions and Their Outage Analysis

East Coast (PADD 1)

• Outage Levels: Planned outages are moderate, except for hydrocracking and coking in October.
• Capacity Losses:
  • Crude distillation: 243,000 b/d (19% of regional capacity) in October.
  • FCCU: 50,000 b/d (10% of regional capacity) in October.
  • Reforming: 49,000 b/d (18%) in October and 54,000 b/d (20%) in November.
  • Hydrocracking: 24,000 b/d (53%) in October and 9,000 b/d (19%) in November.
  • Coking: 20,000 b/d (25%) in October.
• Production Losses:
  • Gasoline: 89,000 b/d in October, 60,000 b/d in November.
  • Jet fuel: 46,000 b/d in October, 15,000 b/d in November.
  • Distillate fuel: 27,000 b/d in October, 8,000 b/d in November.
• Inventory Levels: As of August 31, 2018, production losses account for 7.0% of gasoline, 17.2% of jet fuel, and 2.5% of distillate fuel inventories. Regional inventories are expected to be sufficient to cover in-region production losses.

Midwest (PADD 2)

• Outage Levels: Moderate, with notable exceptions for crude distillation and coking in October, and reforming in October and November.
• Capacity Losses:
  • Crude distillation: 768,000 b/d (18% of regional capacity) in October.
  • Reforming: 129,000 b/d (14%) in October, 80,000 b/d (9%) in November.
  • Coking: 134,000 b/d (23%) in October.
• Production Losses:
  • Gasoline: 235,000 b/d in October, 107,000 b/d in November.
  • Jet fuel: 49,000 b/d in October, 24,000 b/d in November.
  • Distillate fuel: 164,000 b/d in October, 48,000 b/d in November.
• Inventory Levels: As of August 31, 2018, production losses account for 9.9% of gasoline, 13.4% of jet fuel, and 10.5% of distillate fuel inventories. EIA expects supply to remain adequate.

Gulf Coast (PADD 3)

• Outage Levels: Light, with production losses expected to be minimal.
• Capacity Losses:
  • Gasoline: 96,000 b/d in October.
  • Distillate fuel: 99,000 b/d in October.
• Inventory Levels: As of August 31, 2018, production losses account for 4.3% of gasoline, 2.2% of jet fuel, and 8.4% of distillate fuel inventories. Regional inventories are expected to be sufficient to offset production losses.

Rocky Mountain (PADD 4)

• Outage Levels: Light, with minimal impact on product availability.
• Capacity Losses: Not significant due to low regional oil consumption and near-10-year average inventories.
• Inventory Levels: Regional inventories are expected to be sufficient to cover any production losses.

West Coast (PADD 5)

• Outage Levels: Moderate, with coking capacity in October exceeding 11% of regional capacity.
• Capacity Losses:
  • Gasoline: 86,000 b/d in October.
  • Jet fuel: 24,000 b/d in October.
  • Distillate fuel: 52,000 b/d in October.
• Inventory Levels: As of August 31, 2018, production losses account for 9.9% of gasoline, 13.4% of jet fuel, and 10.5% of distillate fuel inventories. Regional inventories are expected to be sufficient to offset production losses.

Methodology

• EIA used PRISM software (developed by Baker & O'Brien Inc.) to simulate refinery unit outages and their impact on regional supply.
• The analysis considered planned shutdowns of key units: ACDU, FCCU, CRU, HU, and CU.
• Base-case simulations were conducted using nonconfidential data and assumptions about refinery operations, including 90% utilization of key units.
• The results were compared to actual 2017 production levels to validate the model.

Recent Market Conditions

• Crude Oil Prices: North Sea Brent crude averaged $78.22/b as of September 11, 2018, higher than the 2017 average.
• Gasoline Margins: Refinery wholesale gasoline margins averaged 40 cents/gal in August 2018, slightly below the 2017 level but near the five-year average.
• Inventory Trends:
  • Gasoline inventories remained above the five-year average through the first half of 2018.
  • Distillate inventories were below the five-year average for five out of six months in 2018.
  • Jet fuel inventories were near the five-year average.

Conclusion

EIA concludes that planned refinery outages in the fourth quarter of 2018 are unlikely to cause supply shortfalls in any region, due to sufficient regional inventories and the ability to draw from other regions and imports. The Gulf Coast, with over half of the U.S. refining capacity, is expected to maintain stable supply to other regions, including the East Coast and Midwest. The West Coast and Rocky Mountain regions also have limited impact due to low outage levels and adequate inventory levels. Overall, EIA expects gasoline, jet fuel, and distillate fuel supply to remain adequate across all regions through December 2018.