世界经济论坛-量化气候变化对人类健康的影响（英）-2024.1-49页_8mb

Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health

This report analyzes the profound and escalating impacts of climate change on global health through six major weather-related events: floods, droughts, heat waves, tropical storms, wildfires, and sea level rise. By 2050, climate change is projected to contribute to 14.5 million additional deaths, $12.5 trillion in economic losses, and $1.1 trillion extra costs to healthcare systems. Floods pose the highest acute mortality risk (8.5 million deaths), while heat waves have the highest economic costs ($7.1 trillion). Mortality rates are driven by direct causes like drownings and heatstroke, but morbidity accounts for 79% of health impacts, including disabilities from diseases like malaria and mental health issues such as PTSD and anxiety disorders. Vulnerable populations, including low-income groups, women, youth, and those in affected regions like Africa and Asia, bear a disproportionate burden, with climate disparities exacerbating existing health inequities.

The analysis uses IPCC scenarios and economic models to estimate these effects, highlighting that climate change undermines healthcare systems through strain on infrastructure, workforce shortages, and changed disease patterns. Long-term health outcomes are influenced by factors like malnutrition, vector-borne diseases, and mental health challenges. Key projections include: Asia facing the second-highest health impact (588 million DALYs lost), Africa and Middle East experiencing significant cumulative damage (1.27 billion DALYs lost, $2.7 trillion in economic losses), and the US bearing a heavy burden from heat-related and wildfire impacts.

Addressing this crisis requires building climate-resilient health systems. Resistance measures include adapting care models, investing in diagnostics and treatments, and enhancing disease surveillance. Recovery strategies involve early warning systems, innovations like digital tools for alerts and diagnostics, and collaborative solutions between public and private sectors. Incentives such as tax credits, grants, and regulatory targets can encourage investment in health-focused climate actions. Successful precedents, like COVAX and orphan disease funding frameworks, demonstrate the potential for policy-driven innovations. Urgent global cooperation, resource commitment, and tailored strategies are needed to mitigate risks and reduce health inequities by 2050.

Conclusion

Climate change represents an imminent health emergency, with cascading effects on mortality, morbidity, and economic stability. Proactive measures, including strengthening healthcare infrastructure, promoting early interventions, and fostering international collaboration, are essential to prevent catastrophic losses and build resilient communities. Immediate action is required to limit emissions and adapt health systems to safeguard global public health.