2017年-世界发展银行全球_Analysis_of_the_Impact_of_Investments_in_Disaster_Risk_Reduction_and_Prevention_in_Mexico___Case_Study_of_Tabasco_between_2007_and_2011_60页_6mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Impact of Investments in Disaster Risk Reduction and Prevention in Tabasco, Mexico (2007–2011)

Core Content

This document presents an analysis of the impact of disaster risk reduction (DRR) investments in the state of Tabasco, Mexico, between 2007 and 2010. It focuses on the effectiveness of these investments in mitigating the damages and losses caused by the 2010 floods, which were more severe than the 2007 floods. The study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of DRR measures and highlights the economic and social benefits of investing in risk reduction.

Main Points

1. Context and Motivation

Tabasco, the most populous state in southeastern Mexico, has experienced 33 hydrometeorological disasters over the past decade.
The 2007 floods affected over one million people and caused economic losses of approximately USD 3 billion, making it the most severe disaster in Mexico in the last 50 years.
These losses prompted the development of the Comprehensive Water Plan of Tabasco (PHIT), a program aimed at reducing flood risk through structural and non-structural measures.

2. DRR Measures Implemented

The PHIT was launched in 2008 with the goal of improving population safety, economic continuity, and ecological balance.
Structural measures included embankments, reinforcements, and the reconstruction of protective hydraulic infrastructure.
Non-structural measures involved early warning systems, risk mapping, and community training.
The PHIT also promoted territorial management to prevent human settlements in high-risk zones.

3. Investment in DRR

Between 2008 and 2010, the Federal Government invested USD 753,613,871 (MXN 9,518 million) in DRR measures in Tabasco, representing 2.18% of the state's GDP in 2010.
Of this, 84% was allocated to infrastructure for population and productive area protection, while 6.74% was used for the PHIT and other comprehensive water plans.
Additional investments were made through the Mexican Fund for Natural Disasters (FONDEN), totaling USD 906,031,049 (MXN 11,433 million) between 2007 and 2010.

4. Impact Assessment Methodology

The study used two main methodologies: the avoided cost method and the synthetic control method.
The avoided cost method compared the damages and losses from the 2007 floods (before PHIT) with those from the 2010 floods (after PHIT implementation).
The synthetic control method simulated a "fictitious" Tabasco based on states that did not experience natural disasters, enabling a comparison of economic outcomes before and after the events.

5. Results

The DRR measures implemented after 2007 helped avoid damages and losses of approximately USD 2,375,332,646 (MXN 30 billion), which equals 7% of Tabasco's GDP.
The 2007 floods had an impact of 15% of GDP, whereas the 2010 floods, despite being more intense, had an impact of only 1% of GDP.
The primary sector (agriculture, livestock, and fishing) was the most benefited, accounting for over 30% of the total avoided damages and losses.
The agricultural sector saw the greatest benefit from the PHIT, with avoided costs exceeding three times the investment cost.

6. Hydrological Comparison

The 2007 and 2010 floods were found to be hydrologically similar, which made them suitable for comparison.
The 2010 flood had a greater magnitude than the 2007 event, but the spatial distribution of rainfall was comparable.
The accumulated rainfall and flow rate data from rivers and hydrometric stations confirmed that the 2007 and 2010 events were similar in terms of hydrological behavior.

7. Conclusion and Recommendations

The study concludes that investing in DRR measures is highly cost-effective and significantly reduces the economic and social impact of natural disasters.
It recommends that the Mexican government should increase investment in both structural and non-structural DRR measures to better manage disaster risks.
The findings emphasize the importance of integrated disaster risk management in promoting sustainable development and economic stability.

Key Information

Total GDP of Tabasco in 2010: USD 20,515,114,638 (MXN 295,102 million).
2007 flood impact: 15% of GDP (USD 3 billion in economic losses).
2010 flood impact: 1% of GDP (USD 2,375 billion in avoided damages and losses).
PHIT investment: USD 50,832,119 (MXN 642 million), focused on flood prevention and territorial management.
FONDEN investment (2007–2010): USD 906,031,049 (MXN 11,433 million), mostly on infrastructure.
Avoided cost benefit: 3 times the cost of DRR investments.
Tabasco's economic marginality: The poorest 20% of the population receives only 5.2% of the state's income.
Population distribution: 80% of the population is concentrated in the central area of the state.

Structure of the Study

Executive Summary: Outlines the main findings and importance of DRR investments.
Introduction: Provides background on the Mexican government's fiscal risk management and the motivation for the study.
Background: Describes the historical context of natural disasters in Tabasco and the lack of empirical evidence on DRR impact.
Comprehensive Water Plan of Tabasco (PHIT): Details the implementation and objectives of the PHIT.
Investments through FONDEN: Describes the role of the FONDEN in funding reconstruction and DRR activities.
Methodology: Explains the use of the avoided cost and synthetic control methods for impact assessment.
Hydrological Characterization: Compares the 2007 and 2010 flood events in terms of rainfall, runoff, and geographical impact.
Results: Quantifies the economic benefits of DRR investments and their sectoral distribution.
Conclusion: Emphasizes the need for increased investment in DRR measures and their role in sustainable development.