2014年-世界发展银行全球_Financial_Sector_Assessment___Poland_35页_875kb

Financial Sector Assessment of Poland (January 2014)

Core Content

Poland's financial system is considered resilient, with sound macroeconomic management and strong fundamentals helping it weather the global financial crisis and Euro Area turmoil. However, vulnerabilities exist due to its exposure to foreign exchange (FX) risk, foreign investors, and the potential for asset quality deterioration. The report outlines key financial sector challenges and provides recommendations for strengthening oversight, improving asset quality, and promoting long-term financial development.

Main Findings and Vulnerabilities

1. Macroeconomic Setting

• Economic Performance: Poland's economy performed well despite a challenging environment, with strong fundamentals and macroeconomic stability preventing recession through 2012.
• Financial System Growth: The financial system has expanded rapidly, with total assets reaching 124% of GDP by 2012.
• Bank Dominance: Banks account for about 70% of financial assets, while nonbank institutions, including pension and mutual funds, have grown to 30% of total assets.

2. Financial Vulnerabilities

• Foreign Exchange Loans: FX mortgages account for 22% of total loans and over half of all mortgages. Despite a decline in issuance, the proportion of impaired FX mortgages has increased slightly to 1.8% by end-2012.
• Loan-to-Value (LTV) Ratios: LTV ratios for some mortgages remain high, with 25% of FX housing loans having LTVs over 130%. The average LTV for new mortgages is about 70%, but some banks continue to offer 100% LTV.
• Capital Flows: Increased foreign investment in domestic bond markets has raised Poland's vulnerability to shifts in market sentiment. Nonresidents now hold 36% of sovereign bonds.
• Asset Quality: Nonperforming loans (NPLs) have increased significantly, particularly in the consumer loan sector, due to relaxed underwriting standards and increased competition. The overall provisioning coverage for NPLs is 54%, but it varies across sectors, with lower coverage in SMEs and housing.

3. Key Risk Drivers

• Slow Growth: Both domestic and foreign economic growth has slowed.
• Unemployment: Rising unemployment is a concern.
• Residential Real Estate Prices: Declining property prices affect mortgage portfolios and asset quality.

Financial Sector Oversight

1. Microprudential Supervision

• Supervisory Improvements: Banking supervision has improved with more frequent inspections and better coordination between onsite and offsite methods.
• Challenges: The supervisory framework lacks sufficient powers, independence, and resources, especially as its mandate expands.
• Credit Unions: SKOKs (credit unions) are a small but growing part of the system. They are poorly capitalized and have high NPLs, requiring stronger regulation and supervision.

2. Macroprudential Policies

• Macroprudential Oversight: A systemic risk board is being established as part of an explicit macroprudential policy framework.
• Policy Objectives: Clear macroprudential objectives should be defined to differentiate from monetary and microprudential policies.
• Regulatory Reforms: Strengthening the macroprudential supervisory law is necessary to ensure the independence and accountability of the Systemic Risk Board (SRB).

Crisis Management and Safety Nets

• Bank Resolution Framework: The deposit guarantee fund (BFG) is set to become the designated resolution agency, with a range of resolution tools available.
• Deposit Insurance: The BFG needs to ensure adequate funding, capacity, and resources. A new code of conduct should restrict employment in member institutions for all employees.
• Insolvency and Creditor Rights: The 2008 ICR ROSC found some improvements, but enforcement and out-of-court restructuring remain problematic.

Financial Development and Market Structure

• Pension System: A stable and well-diversified pension system is crucial for financial development and intergenerational fairness. Lifecycle strategies can encourage long-term investment in pension funds.
• Mortgage Market: The mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) market has not developed significantly, and initiatives to promote mortgage covered bonds (MCBs) and securitization are ongoing.
• Nonbank Financial Intermediation: Despite growth, nonbank financial intermediation remains underdeveloped, with potential for improvement through regulatory reforms.

Policy Recommendations