兰德-OCEANS-17-Tabletop-Exercise_-Findings-and-Recommendations

OCEANS 17 Tabletop Exercise Summary

Core Content

The OCEANS 17 Tabletop Exercise, conducted in December 2017 by the RAND Corporation, involved 50 subject-matter experts (SMEs) from various U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) commands, including USAFRICOM, USCENTCOM, USEUCOM, and USSOCOM. The exercise aimed to explore innovative approaches to enhance operational effectiveness in air operations across geographic combatant command boundaries, particularly against transregional adversaries.

Key Findings

Theater Boundaries and Operational Friction

• Theater boundaries create "boundary friction", a type of Clausewitzian friction, which reduces the efficiency of Blue operations.
• The presence of boundary friction was observed across all mission areas (Personnel Recovery (PR), Close Air Support (CAS), and Airborne Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR)).
• In the case of impermeable boundaries, ISR operations were found to be approximately 25% less effective compared to permeable boundaries.

Mission Area-Specific Challenges

• PR involves high-priority, time-sensitive events, making basing location selection a critical friction point during deliberate planning.
• ISR is in continuous operation and faces challenges in shifting priorities due to the large number of collection objectives and long-range assets.
• CAS requires both routine coverage and rapid response, leading to frictions during both planning and execution phases.

Global Relevance of Boundary Frictions

• The eastern Mediterranean, with its transregional conflicts, is an example of where boundary frictions are significant.
• Other regions, such as the north Pacific and Atlantic, the Bab el-Mandeb, China’s "String of Pearls" in the Indian Ocean, and Central Asia, also face potential cross-boundary operational challenges.

Recommendations

The exercise led to five key recommendations to address boundary frictions:

1. Establish a Joint Force Sufficiency Assessment Working Group

   • The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) J8 should form a working group to examine opportunities for EXORD and deployment order language that enable shared force usage and cross-boundary planning.

2. Adapt Global Force Management Implementation Guidance

   • USAFRICOM, USCENTCOM, USEUCOM, and the JCS should support the adoption of guidance that enables universal sharing of forces with combatant commander and service concurrence.

3. Innovate EXORD Language

   • The JCS should initiate a policy and legal review to develop innovative EXORD language that authorizes and specifies sharing authorities, mechanisms, procedures, and priorities.

4. Conduct Additional TTXs

   • Combatant commands and the JCS should organize further tabletop exercises to test and refine approaches for mitigating cross-boundary frictions, including new mission sets and regions.

5. Develop a Cross-Boundary JCS Exercise

   • USAFRICOM should request the JCS to establish or adapt an existing exercise series to focus on cross-boundary operations in the eastern Mediterranean and further develop the mechanisms from OCEANS 17.

Insights on Mitigation

• EXORDs can be modified to include sharing language, priorities, and procedures, which could help shift boundary frictions upward in the chain of command and into deliberate planning.
• Air Command and Control (C2) innovation is necessary to improve connectivity among key C2 nodes and enable collaborative planning and execution across boundaries.
• Tactical-level integration may be required, such as the establishment of dedicated C2 nodes for cross-boundary operations.
• No solution eliminates boundary friction, only reallocate it organizationally and temporally. Establishing a sub-unified command or cross-theater joint task force could shift frictions geographically, but such actions may require presidential and congressional approval.

Conclusion

OCEANS 17 highlighted the challenges of cross-boundary air operations and the need for innovative approaches in command and control, execute orders, and force management to enhance operational effectiveness. These insights are relevant beyond the eastern Mediterranean, offering potential benefits for other regions with converging boundaries.