20231130-冠通期货-PVC_PVC震荡上行_3页_426kb

PVC Market Analysis Summary (December 2023)

Supply Side

PVC market supply has increased, with the production capacity utilization rate rising by 0.38 percentage points to 76.82%, indicating higher output levels consistent with average historical positions.

Demand Side

Demand remains subdued, particularly in real estate, where investment and sales slowed significantly, but there is optimism from policy supports and better-than-expected construction completion. For instance, government bond issuance plans are expected to boost PVC pipe demand, though overall inventory pressures persist due to weak real-world consumption.

Inventory and Pricing

Inventory levels continue to be elevated, with society stocks increasing, putting downward pressure on PVC prices. The market showed oscillation in prices, with recent buying activity suggesting short-term relief.

Overall Strategy

The analysis suggests waiting for price rebounds to short-sell, while being mindful of market risks and policy uncertainties.

投资有风险，入市需谨慎。