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Cote d'Ivoire Economic Update Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of Cote d'Ivoire's (CIV) economic performance since the end of the post-election crisis in 2011, focusing on macroeconomic developments, structural reforms, and the outlook for future growth. It also examines the impact of external factors such as oil price declines and currency fluctuations on the Ivorian economy.

Main Points

1. Recent Political-Economy Developments and Outlook

• Political Developments:

  • The post-election security and political situations have continued to improve through dialogue with opposition forces and national reconciliation.
  • A new Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) was established, but it faced disputes over its structure, leading to the withdrawal of the FPI and its allies. Later, after restructuring, opposition parties returned, indicating progress toward a more inclusive electoral process.
  • Former President Henri Konan Bedié supported the single candidacy of President Alassane Ouattara, which may help ensure a smooth 2015 election process, though not all political groups are fully aligned.

• Economic Developments:

  • Growth: CIV experienced robust GDP growth of 8.7% in 2013, continuing the recovery from the 2010-11 crisis. Growth remained near 8% in the first half of 2014.
  • Sectoral Contributions: The services sector remained the largest contributor to GDP growth, while agriculture saw a significant increase in its contribution, particularly in food and export crops.
  • Public Investment: Large infrastructure rehabilitation programs drove public investment, which complemented private sector capital outlays.
  • Fiscal Indicators: The primary fiscal balance moved into a slight surplus in 2014, and the overall fiscal deficit narrowed from 3.1% to 2.3% of GDP.
  • Debt Management: Public debt decreased from 44.5% to 40.1% of GDP, with external debt also showing improvement. The country issued its first Eurobond in July 2014, which was highly over-subscribed and had a low yield, signaling improved access to international capital markets.

• External Accounts:

  • The current account deficit was financed through strong foreign direct investment (FDI) and project loans.
  • Terms of trade improved in 2014 due to higher export prices and a depreciation of the euro against the dollar, which benefited CIV's export competitiveness.

• Inflation and Monetary Trends:

  • Inflation in CIV dropped significantly below the WAEMU average by mid-2014, driven by falling food prices and increased private investment.
  • Money supply (M2) grew rapidly, reflecting improved economic conditions and increased credit availability.

2. Explaining CIV's Strong Economic Performance since 2012

• Factors Behind Recovery:

  • Peace Dividends: The economic recovery was driven by domestic investment and improved confidence among private investors, rather than external factors.
  • Domestic Factors: Investment, particularly in public infrastructure and private capital outlays, played a key role in the recovery.
  • Policy Reforms: Business-friendly reforms and improved governance contributed to the sustained growth momentum.

• Sustainability of Growth:

  • The growth recovery is likely to continue, but at a slower pace, as war-affected sectors recapture pre-crisis GDP levels.
  • Recent policy changes and improved business environment are expected to stimulate private investment and exports.

3. Impact of Oil and Non-Oil Commodity Price Changes and Currency Depreciation

• Oil Price Decline: A 50% drop in global crude oil prices since June 2014 had a moderate impact on CIV's economy, as the country was near balance in net oil exports.
• Currency Depreciation: The depreciation of the euro (which is tied to the CFA franc) against the dollar has improved export competitiveness and had a moderate positive effect on GDP growth.
• Terms of Trade: The terms of trade improved due to a more moderate decline in export prices compared to the sharp drop in oil prices, leading to a slight improvement in the current account position.
• Inflation and Demand: While inflation eased, the fiscal stance may tighten due to lower oil-related revenues, but potential gains in domestic demand could support growth.

Key Information

• GDP Growth:
  • 8.7% in 2013, 8.0% in H1 2014, and projected at 8.0% for 2015.
• Fiscal Balance:
  • Primary balance moved into a surplus in 2014, while the overall fiscal deficit narrowed.
• Public Investment:
  • Played a central role in the recovery, with a focus on infrastructure rehabilitation.
• Private Investment:
  • Increased significantly, especially in manufacturing and construction, and was supported by improved confidence and business environment.
• Agricultural Output:
  • Agricultural production rebounded in 2013 with strong output in food crops and export crops like cocoa, cashew, and rubber.
• Economic Outlook:
  • Growth is expected to remain around 8% through 2015, assuming continued political stability and progress in reforms.
• Risks:
  • Global economic conditions, particularly in Europe, and the potential spread of Ebola remain important risks.

Conclusion

Cote d'Ivoire's economic recovery since 2012 has been robust and driven primarily by domestic factors, including public and private investment, improved governance, and a favorable business environment. While external shocks such as falling oil prices and currency depreciation have had some impact, the overall economic outlook remains positive, with growth expected to continue at a moderate pace. The country's ability to access international capital markets and maintain macroeconomic stability is seen as a key factor in sustaining this recovery.