20240223-格林期货-氧化铝早报_2页_78kb

报告摘要

Oxide Aluminum Market Summary

Supply

Recent supply factors include reduced production in Northern China due to air pollution restrictions, and ongoing矿石供应 (oresupply) shortages that limit available inventory. This tight supply situation provides support for prices.

Demand

Demand from aluminum smelters remains largely stable, with most activities centered on long-term contracts. Some low-inventory smelters may have minor reordering needs, but overall, demand is steady.

Inventory and现货

Chinese port inventory of oxide aluminum increased by 160,000 tons week-on-week to 2.88 million tons, still near historically low levels. Key ports showed slight increases in some areas and decreases in others.现货 market is tight, with price at 3338 yuan/ton in the North (-3/day), 3422 yuan/ton in the South (0/day change), and 370 dollars/ton FOB in Australia (0/day change).

Short-Term Outlook

Oxide aluminum is expected to trade in a range-bound or slightly volatile pattern. Market participants should take a cautious approach with limited actions.

Medium to Long-Term Outlook

Driven by excess production capacity, oxide aluminum faces underlying bearish trends. Long-term perspective suggests potential downside due to supply overhang.