20140408-大华银行-2013__Results_In_Line__Strong_Ytd_Orders_Ensure_Good_Outlook_On_2014_Earnings_Delivery_17页_830kb

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of stock performance and company updates for several markets, including China, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, with a focus on key financials, investment recommendations, and future outlooks.

Main Points by Region

China

• China Singyes Solar Technologies (750 HK):
  • 2013 results were in line with expectations, with strong year-to-date (YTD) orders supporting a positive outlook for 2014 earnings.
  • Revenue increased by 34% to Rmb4,150.5m, driven by solar EPC and new materials businesses.
  • Gross profit rose 31.9% to Rmb988.4m, with a slight decline in gross margin to 23.8% from 24.2%.
  • Net profit increased by 50.1% to Rmb491m, and the company proposed a cash dividend of 9 HK cents per share.
  • The company is planning to expand its role as an intermediary in solar projects, focusing on utility-scale and distributive solar projects with a 40:60 split for 2014.
  • Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$15.00 (upside of +26.3%).

Malaysia

• Banking Sector:
  • No systemic fallout in NPL is expected, but slowing growth, rising provisions, and concerns over ROE may cap outperformance.
  • Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.

Singapore

• CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT SP):
  • Expected to perform well in 2015.
  • Maintain BUY with a target price of S$1.88.

Thailand

• Bangkok Bank (BBL TB):
  • Expected to post decent 1Q14 earnings despite macroeconomic headwinds.
  • Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt220.00.

Key Indices Performance

Top Picks

• CNBM (3323 HK): Target price HK$9.82, potential upside 22.4%
• ICBC (1398 HK): Target price HK$5.90, potential upside 23.4%
• Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ): Target price HK$10,800, potential upside 5.4%
• Gamuda (GAM MK): Target price HK$5.54, potential upside 19.9%
• DBS (DBS SP): Target price HK$21.90, potential upside 33.0%
• Pacific Radiance (PACRA SP): Target price HK$1.22, potential upside 11.9%
• Bangkok Bank (BBL TB): Target price HK$220.00, potential upside 18.0%
• PTT (PTT TB): Target price HK$360.00, potential upside 17.6%

Sell

• UMWH Holdings (UMWH MK): Current price HK$11.14, target price HK$10.00 (downside of -10.2%)

Key Assumptions

Corporate Events

Company Updates

Shimao Property (813 HK)

• Top Pick for 2014 Recovery Cycle:
  • Led the market in the destocking and margin recovery cycles.
  • Achieved Rmb67.1b in contract sales in 2013, with a 46% increase year-on-year.
  • Sales target for 2014 is Rmb80b, which is expected to be easily surpassed.
  • Saleable resources amount to around Rmb132b, with a target to increase to Rmb150b.
  • Contracted ASP is expected to be Rmb12,000psm, with a gross margin of around 35%.
  • Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$23.24 (upside of +29.0%).

Stock Impact

• Shimao Property:
  • Sales peak is expected in 2Q14, particularly in June.
  • Management guidance suggests a sales pickup in March and 2Q14 to reach 40-50% of the full-year target by end of 1H14.
  • The company is planning new project launches in Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in April-May and in Fujian in June.
  • Gross margin is expected to remain above 35%, and core margin above 18%.

Valuation & Recommendation

• Shimao Property:
  • Maintain BUY.
  • Raise target price to HK$23.24, narrowing the discount to NAV from 38% to 30%.
  • Upward revision of target price could occur in early-3Q14.

Analysts

• Kevin Zhao Yong Tao
  • Contact: +8621 5404 7225 x 805, kevinzhao@uobkayhian.com
• Edison Bian
  • Contact: +852 2236 6761, edison.bian@uobkayhian.com.hk

Company Description

• China Singyes Solar Technologies Holdings:

  • Designs, fabricates, and installs curtain walls and thin-film building-integrated photovoltaic systems.
  • Engaged in other solar energy products.

• Shimao Property:

  • Develops real estate projects in China, mainly in Yangtze River Delta and Fujian.

Stock Data

China Singyes Solar Technologies (750 HK)

• GICS Sector: Industrials
• Bloomberg Ticker: 750.HK
• Shares Issued (m): 693.9
• Market Cap (HK$m): 8,243.9
• Market Cap (US$m): 1,062.9
• 3-Month Avg Daily Turnover (US$m): 7.2

Shimao Property (813 HK)

• GICS Sector: Financials
• Bloomberg Ticker: 813 HK
• Shares Issued (m): 3,472.6
• Market Cap (HK$m): 62,575.7
• Market Cap (US$m): 8,067.8
• 3-Month Avg Daily Turnover (US$m): 21.7

Price Performance

China Singyes Solar Technologies (750 HK)

• 52-week high/low: HK$13.14 / HK$5.92
• 1-Month: -2.9%
• 3-Month: +40.4%
• 6-Month: +41.3%
• 1-Year: +97.7%
• YTD: +52.3%

Shimao Property (813 HK)

• 52-week high/low: HK$20.20 / HK$13.32
• 1-Month: +21.4%
• 3-Month: +6.6%
• 6-Month: -0.7%
• 1-Year: +20.5%
• YTD: +1.1%

Major Shareholders

• China Singyes Solar Technologies (750 HK):
  • Liu Hongwei: 35.5%
• Shimao Property (813 HK):
  • Hui Wing Mau: 55.2%

Financial Highlights

China Singyes Solar Technologies (750 HK)

• Net margin: 11.8% (2013), expected to remain stable.
• EBITDA margin: 19.9% (2013), expected to decline to 18.3% in 2014.
• ROE: 22.1% (2013), expected to rise to 24.5% in 2014.

Shimao Property (813 HK)

• Net margin: 20.1% (2013), expected to decline to 14.9% in 2014.
• ROE: 17.3% (2013), expected to rise to 23.3% in 2016.

Revenue Breakdown (Rmbm)

Earnings & Profit & Loss

China Singyes Solar Technologies (750 HK)

• Net profit: Rmb491m (2013), expected to rise to Rmb713.7m (2014F).
• Pre-tax profit: Rmb627m (2013), expected to increase to Rmb915m (2014F).
• Net profit (adj.): Rmb491m (2013), expected to rise to Rmb713.7m (2014F).

Shimao Property (813 HK)

• Net profit (rep./act.): Rmb7,389.8m (2013), expected to rise to Rmb9,184.5m (2014F).
• Net profit (adj.): Rmb6,616.5m (2013), expected to rise to Rmb9,184.5m (2014F).
• EPS (fen): 190.9 (2013), expected to rise to 264.9 (2014F).

Key Metrics

Summary of Key Information

• China Singyes Solar Technologies (750 HK):

  • Strong 2013 results with a 34% revenue increase.
  • Maintains a BUY rating with a target price of HK$15.00.
  • Expected to achieve its 2014 sales target due to strong order backlog and government collaboration.
  • Gross margin is expected to decline due to a shift in order mix.

• Shimao Property (813 HK):

  • Leads the recovery cycle in 2014 with strong margin recovery.
  • Sales target of Rmb80b is expected to be easily surpassed.
  • Maintains a BUY rating with a target price of HK$23.24.
  • Strong gross margin (35.3% in 2013) and core margin (18.8%) expected to remain stable.

• Key Indices:

  • Mixed performance across markets with some indices showing positive growth and others declining.

• Corporate Events:

  • A series of events are scheduled in April, including presentations, roadshows, and strategy discussions.

• Analysts:

  • Kevin Zhao Yong Tao and Edison Bian are the key analysts providing insights and recommendations.

• Stock Data:

  • Both companies have significant market caps and active share turnover.

• Valuation:

  • Both companies are recommended with target prices based on projected performance and market conditions.