2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Togo_Selected_Issues_33页_985kb

Togo: Summary of IMF Selected Issues

Core Content

This document provides an in-depth analysis of economic activity and inflation dynamics in Togo, focusing on the development of a high-frequency Economic Activity Index (EAI) and the role of food prices in inflation.

High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (EAI)

Background

Togo only has annual GDP data with long publication lags, making it difficult to monitor macroeconomic developments in real time. To address this, the IMF developed a high-frequency EAI that is highly correlated with annual GDP and available with shorter lags.

Analytical Framework

The EAI is constructed using a rich set of monthly economic indicators from various sectors (primary, secondary, tertiary). These indicators are selected to minimize the Mean Square Error (MSE) with respect to actual GDP growth and maximize the correlation with GDP growth. The methodology is similar to that used by the Conference Board.

Results: Togo Case

• A high-frequency EAI was constructed that replicates historical GDP growth rates well.
• The EAI includes variables from the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors, with weights as follows:
  • Primary Sector (35%): Exports (55%), Rainfalls in Dapaong region (22%), Rainfalls in Tabligo region (23%)
  • Secondary Sector (25%): Industrial electricity consumption (53%), Imports (26%), Industrial production index (21%)
  • Tertiary Sector (40%): Electricity consumption (60%), Tax collection (24%), Total airport passenger arrivals (15%)

Robustness: Rwanda Case

• The methodology was tested on Rwanda, which has quarterly GDP data.
• The EAI for Rwanda also showed a low MSE and high correlation with both annual and quarterly GDP, confirming the robustness of the approach.

Recent Developments

• Economic activity indicators suggest a slowdown in recent periods.
• Exports and imports have declined, and tax collection has weakened.
• However, rainfall in key agricultural regions has been stable, and electricity consumption (both industrial and non-industrial) has continued to grow steadily.

Policy Implications

• The EAI provides policymakers with a tool to monitor economic activity and make informed decisions.
• It can help in forecasting revenue performance and adjusting fiscal policies to avoid liquidity risks and arrears.
• The index is particularly useful for countries without quarterly GDP data.

Inflation Dynamics in Togo

Background

• Inflation in Togo has been low in recent years, despite high growth and accommodative monetary policies.
• This is largely due to negative food inflation, which has had a significant impact on overall inflation.

Analytical Framework

• Food inflation has a direct and indirect effect on overall inflation.
• It influences inflation through its weight in the CPI basket and via pass-through effects to other inflation sub-components.
• Monetary authorities should consider food prices in their policy decisions, not just core inflation measures.

Econometric Evidence

• Food inflation is more persistent than headline inflation in Togo.

• Persistence estimates show:

  • Total Inflation: 0.86***
  • Food Inflation: 0.88***
  • Excl. Food: 0.82***
  • Excl. Food & Trans.: 0.81***

• A one standard deviation shock to food inflation (about 4% change) leads to a 0.5% change in non-food inflation after 10 months.

Policy Implications

• Food inflation has significant and persistent effects on overall inflation.
• Policymakers should consider food price shocks when designing monetary and fiscal policies.
• Ignoring food inflation can lead to delayed policy responses and higher inflation expectations.

Policies for Sustainable Growth

Stylized Facts

• Togo's growth has been weaker and more volatile compared to peer countries.
• Labor utilization has been a major driver of growth, with most of the growth over the past two decades attributed to labor accumulation.
• Capital accumulation accounts for a smaller share of growth.
• Togo has a relatively highly educated labor force, but this has not translated into significant productivity gains due to low labor demand.

Recent Trends

• Limited structural change in the output and export structure.
• Agriculture remains a major contributor to economic activity (34% in 2013).
• Trade and services account for 47% of economic activity.
• Output diversification is low, with the construction sector almost doubling its share of output since 1970.
• Export diversification has improved, but export quality has remained stagnant.
• Togo is more diversified in export partners than its peers, but commodity export quality has declined since 1990.

Gains from Structural Transformation

• Structural transformation can boost output growth and reduce volatility.

• Reallocation of labor from agriculture to manufacturing could increase output by 1.9%.

• A 1% increase in agricultural productivity could raise aggregate output by 0.3%.

• Structural transformation can occur both between sectors and within sectors:

  • Between sectors: Moving resources from low-productivity to high-productivity sectors.
  • Within sectors: Improving product and service quality, focusing on high-value-added activities, and diversifying into new products.

Policy Considerations

• Public investment is important for growth but must be efficient.
• Sustainable growth requires not only investment but also complementary policies.
• Investment in "soft" infrastructure, such as the business environment, is crucial for structural transformation.

Conclusion

The document highlights the importance of developing high-frequency economic indicators in the absence of quarterly GDP data, particularly for Togo. It emphasizes the significant role of food prices in inflation dynamics and the need for structural transformation to achieve sustainable growth. The EAI provides a useful tool for monitoring economic activity, while understanding the transmission of food inflation to other components is essential for effective monetary and fiscal policy. Additionally, the analysis suggests that improving the business environment and promoting productivity in key sectors could lead to substantial economic gains.