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Summary of "The End State Fallacy" in the Afghan, Pakistan, and Iraq Wars

Core Content

This document, authored by Anthony H. Cordesman, analyzes the U.S. grand strategy in the Afghan, Pakistan, and Iraq wars, emphasizing that the pursuit of a clear "end state" is a fallacy. The author argues that the U.S. has not achieved any meaningful strategic outcomes in these conflicts and that the focus on short-term victories or troop withdrawals risks long-term instability and failure.

Main Views

1. Iraq: The Lack of a Meaningful End State

• Current Situation: The U.S. has not achieved a stable or effective Iraqi government, nor has it resolved sectarian and ethnic tensions or eliminated the threat of extremist groups like Al Qa'ida in Iraq.

• Strategic Importance: Iraq is a vital national security interest for the U.S. due to its potential to counter Iranian influence, secure Gulf oil exports, and serve as a regional partner.

• Military and Economic Status: Iraq remains one of the poorest countries in the world with a per capita GDP ranking of 158th globally. Its military and political systems are fragile, and its oil production is projected to grow slowly over time.

• Outcomes Analysis:

  • Pangloss Solution (10% probability): Iraq emerges with a stable, effective government and strong economic development.
  • Iraq Implodes (10% probability): A failed state with a repressive government, weak security forces, and Iranian dominance.
  • Weak Iraq (25% probability): A compromise government with deep internal divisions and continued external influence competition.
  • Iraq Muddles Through (55% probability): A stable but unstable state with ongoing internal tensions and U.S. involvement in security and deterrence.

• U.S. Role: The U.S. must maintain a strong diplomatic and military presence to support Iraqi stability and counter Iranian influence. Without this, the risk of failure increases significantly.

2. Broader Strategic Environment in the Gulf and Turkey

• Regional Strategy: Iraq is only one part of a larger regional strategy. The U.S. must also address:

  • Iran's Nuclear and Missile Threat: The U.S. needs to develop a mix of military, diplomatic, and economic tools to deter and contain Iran.
  • Gulf Stability: The U.S. must reassure Gulf states of its continued presence and commitment to regional security.
  • Arab-Israeli Conflict: The U.S. must continue its efforts to resolve this long-standing issue.
  • Turkey: U.S.-Turkish relations are critical, especially regarding Iran, Israel, and regional stability.

• Security and Energy Interests: The Gulf is vital for global energy security. The U.S. cannot ignore the long-term strategic importance of the region, even as it withdraws from Iraq.

3. Afghanistan and Pakistan: Uncertain Futures

• Strategic Uncertainty: Unlike Iraq, the U.S. has limited strategic interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan. These regions are more volatile and less stable.
• No Clear End State: The U.S. cannot expect a clear victory or stable outcome in either country, even with a new strategy.
• Challenges:
  • Afghanistan: A country with a weak economy (per capita income rank 201st), a corrupt government, and a population that has grown significantly since the 1979 Soviet invasion.
  • Pakistan: A potential rival with its own internal issues, including the risk of becoming a sanctuary for extremist groups.

4. Key Strategic Outcomes and Probabilities

• Afghanistan:

  • Pangloss Solution (10% probability): A successful transition to Afghan-led security with reduced Taliban influence.
  • Afghanistan Explodes (20% probability): A collapse of governance, leading to Taliban control and increased Al Qa'ida influence.
  • Weak Afghanistan (55% probability): Continued reliance on U.S. support, with weak governance and security structures.

• Energy Independence: The U.S. cannot achieve energy independence in the near future. Projections show continued reliance on oil imports, even by 2035. U.S. strategy should focus on securing energy flows rather than immediate independence.

5. Conclusion and Recommendations

• The U.S. must avoid the "end state fallacy" and recognize that long-term strategic success in Iraq and the broader region requires sustained effort and presence.
• A comprehensive grand strategy is needed that includes military, diplomatic, and economic components to ensure regional stability and counter threats like Iran.
• The U.S. must maintain strong ties with Gulf states, Turkey, and continue the Arab-Israeli peace process.
• In Afghanistan and Pakistan, the U.S. should prioritize long-term stability and security over premature withdrawal, as the region's future is highly uncertain.