20160414-三星证券-Perspectives_Weekly_19页_1mb

报告摘要

Samsung Market Strategy Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the market strategy for Samsung, focusing on the impact of yen strengthening on Korean exports and the current state of the Korean and global stock markets. It includes analysis of sector fundamentals, valuations, EPS forecasts, and fund flows, with recommendations for investment opportunities.

Main Points

Yen Strengthening Impact: While many expect Korean exporters to benefit from a stronger yen, the analysis suggests that the weak performance of Korean exports since 2011 is due to factors other than forex rates, such as weak global demand and fierce competition. The benefits of yen appreciation are likely to be limited and primarily affect the auto and home electronics sectors.
Historical Correlation: From 2009-2015, the Korean stock market showed a lackluster performance during yen appreciation, possibly due to the yen strengthening during risk-averse periods in global financial markets.
Sector Analysis: The energy, software, insurance, shipbuilding, banking, and auto sectors have seen steady increases in EPS forecasts, leading to undemanding P/B multiples. However, share prices have remained relatively weak despite strong earnings momentum.
Global Fund Flows: Capital has been leaving emerging markets, including Korea, with net outflows from domestic equity funds continuing for the fifth week in a row.

Key Sectors and Performance

Korean Stock Markets

Energy: EPS forecasts have risen, with undemanding P/B multiples.
Materials: EPS forecasts have also increased, but the P/B multiples remain low.
Industrials: The shipbuilding and construction sectors have shown strong share-price performances.
Consumer: The auto and auto parts sector has seen EPS momentum drop slightly.
Financials: Banks and insurance sectors have shown mixed performance in terms of EPS forecasts and share prices.
IT: Semiconductor and software sectors have seen strong EPS growth, though share prices have been relatively weak.
Telecom Services: Share prices have been weak, but EPS forecasts have shown some growth.
Utilities: Strong EPS forecasts and share price performance.

Global Stock Markets

Japan and Eurozone: Undervalued compared to the MSCI AC world index.
United States: Overvalued.
Emerging Markets: Bearish sentiment with continued capital outflows.

Investment Recommendations

Top Picks: The report highlights several top stocks across various sectors, including SK Innovation, Lotte Chemical, and Samsung Electronics, based on their EPS forecasts and market performance.
Valuation Metrics: Forward P/E and P/B ratios are used to evaluate the relative attractiveness of different sectors.
EPS Forecast Changes: The report provides a detailed breakdown of EPS forecast changes for both large and small caps, indicating which stocks have seen the most significant growth or decline.

Summary and Top Picks

Energy: SK Innovation
Materials: Lotte Chemical
Industrials: Hyundai Development Co, Hyundai Glovis
Consumer Discretionary: GS Home Shopping
Financials: KB Financial Group, Samsung Fire & Marine
IT: Samsung Electronics, SK Materials, Soulbrain
Telecom Services: SK Telecom
Utilities: Kepco

Key Figures and Trends

Yen Appreciation Correlation: A strong correlation between yen appreciation and earnings in the auto and home electronics sectors.
Fund Flows: Net outflows from Korean funds, with a focus on emerging markets.
Sector Valuations: Forward P/E and P/B ratios are used to assess the relative value of different sectors.

Conclusion

The document suggests that while yen appreciation may provide some benefits to Korean exports, especially in the auto and home electronics sectors, the overall impact is limited due to broader economic and competitive factors. Investors are advised to focus on these specific sectors and monitor the yen's long-term trend for potential earnings boosts. The analysis also highlights the importance of evaluating sector valuations and EPS forecasts for informed investment decisions.

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