深度-国际战略研究中心-俄罗斯对华军事转移的性质变化及其影响（英文）-2021.6-8页_90kb

Summary of "The Changing Nature and Implications of Russian Military Transfers to China"

Core Content

The document analyzes the evolving nature of Russian-Chinese military cooperation, highlighting the significant increase in arms transfers since 2015. This cooperation has been driven by geopolitical considerations, particularly Russia's need for economic and diplomatic support in the wake of the Ukraine crisis and Western sanctions. The resumption of large-scale arms sales and technology transfers has contributed to a growing military convergence between the two nations, enhancing their strategic partnership.

Main Points

1. Trends in Arms Transfers

• Increased Volume and Value: Arms transfers have surged, with notable deals including the $5 billion Su-35 and S-400 contracts in 2015.
• Technology Transfer Over Sales: Russia has shifted from traditional arms sales to technology transfers, which are more costly in the long run but beneficial for China's defense development.
• Strategic Importance: Joint technology projects, such as the development of the heavy-lift helicopter, have expanded into new areas like missile defense and are of growing strategic importance.

2. Strategic Implications for China

• Military Advancement: Russian military systems and technologies, such as the Su-35 and S-400, have enhanced China's capabilities in air power, long-range defense, and naval operations.
• Regional Influence: These transfers are helping China to tilt the military balance in the Western Pacific in its favor, particularly in areas like the South and East China Seas.
• Self-Sufficiency Goals: China is becoming more selective in its acquisitions, focusing on underlying technologies to reduce reliance on Russian platforms and advance its own defense industry.

3. Russia's Constraints and Concerns

• Intellectual Property Theft: Russia remains concerned about Chinese reverse engineering and has reported over 500 cases of IP theft over 17 years.
• Selective Transfers: Russia is cautious about transferring its most sensitive technologies, such as the RD-180 rocket engine and Iskander missile, to China.
• Geopolitical Risks: Russia avoids transferring offensive systems, fearing that China might use them against it in the future.
• Market Competition: Chinese arms exports based on Russian technology, such as HQ-9 SAMs and Yuan-class submarines, pose a challenge to Russia's dominance in the arms market.

4. Impact on Western-Pacific Military Balance

• Air Power: The Su-35 Flankers have extended China's air reach into the South China Sea, though they are not a match for the F-22.
• Air Defense: The S-400 systems significantly enhance China's long-range air defense, potentially covering Taiwan and the Senkakus.
• Maritime Operations: The Mi-171H helicopters and Russian turbofan engines support China's air mobile and maritime capabilities.
• Future Potential: Joint development projects may lead to advanced Chinese systems like heavy-lift helicopters and conventional submarines, further strengthening its military posture.

Key Information

• Economic Motivation: Russia relies on China as one of its two most important arms clients, with $37 billion in sales since 1992.
• Strategic Partnership: The resumption of arms transfers and joint projects has reinforced the strategic partnership between Russia and China, particularly in countering Western influence.
• Geopolitical Shifts: China's growing military power and its integration of Russian systems into its counter-intervention strategy have raised concerns in Moscow.
• Limitations on Cooperation: Despite progress, Russia has not fully opened its technology to China, maintaining a degree of control and safeguarding its strategic interests.

Conclusion

While the resumption of arms transfers has strengthened Sino-Russian military ties, it has also introduced new challenges for Russia. The shift toward technology transfer and joint development projects may erode Russia's technological lead over China, and the country is increasingly dependent on China's commercial and dual-use technologies. At the same time, these transfers are reshaping the military balance in the Western Pacific, contributing to China's strategic ascendancy. However, Russia's continued involvement in the region through arms sales to India and Vietnam ensures its influence remains significant for the foreseeable future.