战略与国际研究中心-Hemisphere-Focus_-The-PRI-Determines-Its-Leadership-and-Direction_7页_160kb
报告摘要
PRI Leadership Election Summary (2007)
Core Content
The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) held a leadership election in 2007, with the goal of selecting its president and secretary general for a four-year term. The election was a key event for the party, which had lost its presidential dominance in 2000 and was looking to reestablish influence in Mexican politics. The race was narrowed down to two main slates: one led by former Tlaxcala governor Beatriz Elena Paredes Rangel and her running mate, former Hidalgo governor Jesús Murillo Karam; and the other led by former Senate leader Enrique Jackson Ramírez and his running mate, Quintana Roo deputy Sara Latife Ruiz Chávez.
Main Candidates and Their Backgrounds
Beatriz Elena Paredes Rangel
- Birth and Education: August 18, 1953, San Esteban Tizatlán, Tlaxcala; degree in sociology (UNAM)
- Political Activities: State legislator, federal deputy, under secretary of agrarian reform, governor of Tlaxcala, senator, and party leader in the Chamber of Deputies
- Running Mate: Jesús Murillo Karam, former Hidalgo governor
Enrique Jackson Ramírez
- Birth and Education: December 24, 1945, Los Mochis, Sinaloa; degree in public administration (UNAM)
- Political Activities: Director of Labor Ministry, federal deputy, senator, president of the Senate, and unsuccessful presidential candidate in 2005
- Running Mate: Sara Latife Ruiz Chávez, 30-year-old federal deputy from Quintana Roo
Key Supporters
Paredes' Supporters
- Conservative Wing: Strong backing from the "dinosauric" faction of the PRI, including governors from Campeche, Chihuahua, Durango, Hidalgo, Nayarit, Puebla, and Tabasco.
- Institutional Backing: Support from the National Peasant Confederation (CNC), the Confederation of Mexican Workers (CTM), and the Federation of State Workers (FSTSE).
- Key Figures: Former governors Ignacio Pichardo, Arturo Romo, Ruben Figueroa, Manuel Angel Nunez, and Arnoldo Ochoa; Madrazo loyalists like Carlos Rojas Gutierrez, Jose Ramon Martel, and others.
- Political Alliances: Strong ties with Calderón, with whom she worked during the Fox administration. She also has support in the PAN-governed states of Tlaxcala and the D.F.
Jackson's Supporters
- Progressive Wing: Gains support from progressive PRI politicians, including governors Eduardo Bours (Sonora), Natividad González Paras (Nuevo León), and Enrique Peña Nieto (State of México).
- Institutional Backing: Backing from the SNTE Teachers' Union, led by Elba Esther Gordillo, a key figure in Calderón's 2006 victory.
- Key Figures: Former governors César Camacho Quiroz (Mexico State) and Francisco Labastida Ochoa (Sinaloa); former senator Humberto Roque Villanueva and deputy Mariano González Zarur.
Election Rules and Process
- Eligibility Criteria: Candidates must have 10 years of party militancy, three years of residency, no affiliation with other parties, and current dues payment.
- Disqualification Process: The National Committee on Internal Processes (CNPI) disqualified slates that did not meet the criteria.
- Vote Distribution: The election involved 17,252 members of the state political councils and over 300 members of the National Political Council (CPN).
- Campaign Spending: The combined spending of the tandem candidates cannot exceed 2% of the amount allowed in the last presidential campaign (approximately 13 million pesos).
Political Implications
- Calderón's Interests: Calderón closely monitors the election, as he needs PRI support to push his reform agenda, particularly in energy and economic policies.
- Intra-Party Dynamics: The election is seen as a contest between conservative and progressive factions within the PRI. Paredes is associated with the traditionalist wing, while Jackson has progressive backing.
- Unity Challenges: Both Paredes and Jackson face difficulties in uniting the party, which is divided between old guard and reformist elements. The party's lack of ideology exacerbates these divisions.
- 2012 Presidential Race: The election is also seen as a stepping stone for the 2012 presidential nomination, with both candidates having potential to lead the party in that contest.
Polling Results
- Mitofsky Poll (Late January 2007): Paredes led with 30.9%, Jackson with 12.9%, and minor candidates with 1%.
- Parametría Poll (Early February 2007): Paredes surged to 47%, while Jackson was at 18%.
- Controversy: Jackson's supporters dismissed the results, citing the small sample size, while most observers believed Paredes was the favorite.
Conclusion
The PRI leadership election in 2007 is a critical moment for the party's future. The outcome will shape its political direction and its ability to collaborate with the Calderón administration. While Paredes has the support of the party's conservative base and strong ties to Calderón, Jackson is backed by progressive elements and has the backing of influential unions. The election's result will influence the party's strategy in upcoming elections, including the 2012 presidential race. Ultimately, the PRI's ability to unify will determine its effectiveness in the political arena.
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