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Hemisphere Insider Summary: Mexico's Presidential Election and Regional Developments

Core Content

The Hemisphere Insider document provides an overview of the 2012 Mexican presidential election, focusing on the key candidates and their policies, alongside updates on regional developments in Latin America and the Caribbean. It also touches on U.S. foreign policy shifts and bilateral agreements between countries in the region.

Main Candidates in the Mexican Presidential Election

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD)

• Background: Former head of Mexico City, narrowly lost the 2006 presidential election.
• Key Policies:
  • Aims to unify local, state, and federal police forces.
  • Emphasizes human rights in the context of Mexico's drug wars.
  • Plans to make few changes to Pemex (state oil monopoly) or labor laws.

Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI)

• Background: Former governor of Mexico State.
• Key Policies:
  • Also seeks to consolidate police forces.
  • Plans to allow private investment in Pemex and develop shale gas.
  • Supports greater access to credit for small businesses.
  • Has sought advice from Colombia's former national police chief.

Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN)

• Background: Former education minister under President Calderon, later aligned with the controversial teachers' union.
• Key Policies:
  • Would allow Pemex to sell stock.
  • Aims to strengthen the rule of law.
  • Directs government purchases toward small businesses.

Gabriel Quadri de la Torre (PANAL)

• Background: Environmentalist and free marketeer.
• Key Policies:
  • Believes the army is still needed to combat drug cartels until police reform.
  • Proposes privatizing a minority stake in Pemex.
  • Plans to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies.

Latest Polling (June 25-27, 2012)

• Enrique Peña Nieto: 40%
• Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 24%
• Josefina Vázquez Mota: 19%
• Gabriel Quadri de la Torre: 2%

Regional Developments

USAID Funding Cuts

• USAID has reduced support to Nicaragua, Ecuador, and Bolivia due to their opposition to U.S. foreign policy.
• Despite funding cuts, these countries are seeking support from Venezuela and Iran.
• Venezuela continues to provide discounted oil to regional allies.
• Ecuador has signed 25 agreements with Iran for trade and joint projects.
• Iran has pledged agricultural and manufacturing investments in Nicaragua and $1.1 billion in energy investments in Bolivia over five years.
• ALBA members may expel USAID missions, but Venezuela and Iran's support is uncertain due to leadership struggles and sanctions.

Caribbean: Barbados

• Conducted Exercise Tradewinds 2012, a U.S.-backed multilateral exercise aimed at enhancing military and law enforcement cooperation.
• The exercise focuses on counternarcotics and counterterrorism.
• 17 Caribbean countries and U.S., Canada participated.

Haiti

• Prime Minister Laurent Lamothe proposed duty-free access for products entering Haiti from the Dominican Republic to boost state revenue.
• Also called for better border security to reduce illegal trafficking and smuggling.

Central America: Costa Rica

• A new study by the Costa Rica Chamber of Commerce showed a 18% increase in local business investments in security.
• Nearly one-third of companies surveyed reported being victims of crime in the past 12 months.

North America: Mexico

• Grupo Televisa accepted conditions from the Federal Competition Commission (CFC) to purchase 50% of Iusacell, a mobile phone company.
• New measures include safeguards for competitive content sales.
• Industry trade monitors argue that these measures won't reduce market concentration, as the CFC lacks enforcement tools.

South America: Bolivia

• Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Bolivian President Evo Morales signed an agreement to cooperate on counternarcotics.
• Iran will send military experts to assist in jungle operations.
• Morales expressed support for Iran's nuclear energy program.

Brazil

• Brazil and China agreed to a $30 billion currency swap to enhance cooperation among BRIC nations.
• This is intended to withstand global economic turmoil and create more business opportunities for Brazilian companies, including Embraer jets.

Uruguay

• President José Mujica is proposing a bill to legalize marijuana to reduce illegal trafficking and wean users off harder drugs.
• The state will manage sales through a country-wide distribution network.
• Monitoring of marijuana consumers is planned to minimize addictive behavior.

Key Information

• The Mexican election highlights political reform and security concerns.
• Regional dynamics are influenced by U.S. foreign policy and alternative alliances with Venezuela and Iran.
• Security investments are rising in Central America and Caribbean nations.
• Economic strategies such as currency swaps and privatization are being explored in Brazil and Mexico.
• Drug policy and narcotics control are central to Bolivia and Uruguay's recent developments.