战略与国际研究中心-What-s-at-Stake-in-the-KORUS-FTA_3页_354kb

KORUS FTA Summary

Core Content

The KORUS FTA (Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement) is a significant trade pact that has been signed by the U.S. and South Korea but remains pending congressional approval. The agreement, initially signed under the Bush administration in June 2007, has not yet been enacted due to political hesitations and concerns over specific trade provisions, particularly those related to beef imports and automotive trade.

Main Points

• Political Context: President Obama is set to visit Asia, and the author argues that it is crucial for him to push for the KORUS FTA's passage. The agreement's implementation has been stalled, partly due to the 2008 Democratic primaries, where Obama, despite being an internationalist, avoided taking a strong stance to avoid alienating his party's labor base.

• Economic Benefits: The KORUS FTA is expected to yield substantial economic gains for the U.S. According to the International Trade Commission, it could boost U.S. GDP by up to $11.9 billion and increase merchandise exports by $10.9 billion, serving as a free economic stimulus without increasing national debt.

• Strategic Importance: The FTA is not only an economic agreement but also a strategic tool to strengthen the U.S.-South Korea alliance. It represents an upgrade from a traditional military alliance to a comprehensive partnership, similar to how the FTAs with Singapore (2004) and Australia (2005) deepened those relationships.

• Regional Competition: South Korea has been proactive in pursuing free trade agreements, including the EU-Korea FTA, which could give European firms an early advantage in the Korean market. Additionally, Japan, Korea, and China have expressed interest in a trilateral FTA, signaling a broader regional trend toward economic integration.

• U.S. Leadership in Asia: Supporting the KORUS FTA is essential for maintaining American leadership in Asia, especially as China becomes more active in negotiating trade agreements across the region. The author highlights that free trade has historically been a key component of American soft power and public goods in the region, such as security, freedom of navigation, and economic openness.

• Political Accountability: A recent academic study suggests that voters do not hold politicians accountable for their support of free trade agreements, such as CAFTA, indicating that FTA votes are not politically risky for politicians. This challenges the conventional wisdom that domestic opposition to FTAs is a major obstacle.

Key Information

• KORUS FTA Status: Signed in 2007, awaiting congressional approval.
• Concerns: Primarily related to beef and automotive sectors.
• Strategic Upgrade: The FTA can deepen the U.S.-Korea alliance and align it with other bilateral FTAs.
• Regional Trends: South Korea is moving ahead with FTA negotiations, potentially undermining U.S. influence.
• U.S. Leadership: Free trade is a key element of American leadership in Asia, especially in contrast to China's growing trade presence.
• Political Implications: The study on CAFTA shows that FTA support does not significantly affect re-election chances, suggesting that political advisors may be misinformed.

Conclusion

The KORUS FTA represents a critical opportunity for the U.S. to enhance its economic and strategic ties with South Korea. Despite political hesitations, the agreement's economic benefits and strategic value are clear. The author urges the administration to prioritize the FTA in light of regional competition and the diminished capacity of the U.S. to provide traditional public goods in the post-financial crisis era.