世界发展银行-Closing-the-SDG-Financing-Gap-_-Trends-and-Data_8页_472kb

Summary of "Closing the SDG Financing Gap—Trends and Data"

Core Content

This document discusses the significant financing gap required to achieve the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), emphasizing the need for both public and private sector contributions, as well as cross-border inflows. It highlights the role of domestic revenue mobilization, capital market development, and improved public investment management in addressing this gap.

Main Points

SDG Financing Gap

• The global community needs to increase development financing from billions to trillions to meet the SDGs.
• The estimated annual investment required for SDG-relevant sectors in developing countries ranges between $3.3 trillion and $4.5 trillion.
• The financing gap is around $2.5 trillion annually, based on UNCTAD (2014) estimates.
• For low- and lower middle-income countries (LLMICs), $170 billion in additional infrastructure spending is needed through efficient public spending and tax increases.
• Emerging countries require an additional $2.1 trillion in public and private spending to meet SDG targets.

Sectoral Investment Needs

• Infrastructure is the largest sector requiring investment, with:
  • Power infrastructure needing up to $950 billion.
  • Climate change mitigation requiring $850 billion.
  • Transport infrastructure needing $770 billion.
• Social infrastructure also has significant gaps:
  • Health: ~$140 billion.
  • Education: ~$250 billion.
• To meet infrastructure-related SDGs and limit climate change to 2°C, LMICs need to invest 4.5% of GDP annually. With maintenance costs, this increases to 7.2% of GDP.

Cross-Border Flows

• Total cross-border flows to developing countries increased by 32% from $1.4 trillion in 2015 to $1.6 trillion in 2017.
• Low- and lower middle-income countries received $234 billion in cross-border flows in 2017, while upper middle-income countries received $819 billion.
• To close the SDG financing gap in LLMICs, cross-border flows would need to increase by more than 60%, from $234 billion to $358 billion.
• Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) saw a 9% increase in cross-border flows from $143 billion in 2016 to $157 billion in 2017, but FDI inflows decreased by 27% due to the 2014-2016 oil price decline.
• Portfolio investment and remittances have shown increasing trends, while FDI and official flows have been more volatile.

Private Sector Role

• The private sector contributes only 9-13% of total infrastructure investments in LMICs.
• Excluding China, the private sector share increases to 14-31%, indicating the potential for greater private involvement.
• PPI (Private Participation in Infrastructure) investments in developing countries dropped from $150 billion in 2012 to $95 billion in 2017 and $43 billion in H1 2018.
• A 8-fold increase in PPI investments in LLMICs from $46 billion to $368 billion could significantly reduce the SDG financing gap when combined with tax increases and cross-border flows.
• Transport and energy sectors show the highest private sector participation, while ICT and water and sanitation remain underinvested.

Public Investment Management (PIMA)

• The IMF's PIMA framework assesses public investment management and provides tailored recommendations to improve efficiency.
• Low-income countries have lower PIMA scores than emerging economies, indicating less efficient infrastructure spending.
• Improving the efficiency of infrastructure spending can reduce costs by over $1 trillion annually.

Domestic Revenue Mobilization

• Domestic revenues (excluding grants) in LLMICs increased from 15.5% of GDP in 2000 to 18.5% in 2017.
• Tax revenues for LLMICs increased from 11% of GDP to 15% in the same period, but still fall short of the 21% seen in high-income countries.
• Increasing tax revenue by 5 percentage points of GDP could provide $170 billion for infrastructure in LLMICs, but is insufficient for meeting SDG targets alone.

Key Information

• SDG financing gap: Estimated at $2.5 trillion annually.
• Infrastructure needs: Most significant, with power infrastructure requiring $950 billion.
• Private sector potential: Can help close the gap but depends on project availability and quality.
• Cross-border flows: Play a critical role, especially in low-income countries.
• PIMA scores: Reflect the efficiency of public investment management, with low-income countries performing worse than emerging economies.
• Tax capacity: A key factor for development, with a minimum tax-to-GDP of 12.75% needed to support essential public functions.
• Efficiency of spending: Can reduce the total investment required by over $1 trillion annually.

Conclusion

Achieving the SDGs requires a multi-faceted approach involving:

• Increased domestic revenue.
• Improved public investment management.
• Enhanced private sector participation.
• Greater cross-border flows.
• A focus on efficient and targeted spending.

The document underscores the importance of coordinated efforts between public and private sectors, and the need for better financial systems and enabling business environments to mobilize more capital for sustainable development.