杜特尔特政府下的菲中安全关系评估（2016-2020）（英）-奥斯陆和平研究所-2021-36页_318kb

Summary of An Appraisal of Philippines-China Security Relations under the Duterte Administration (2016–2020)

Core Content

This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the security relations between the Philippines and China during the Duterte administration (2016–2020). It explores the nature, extent, and implications of Chinese security assistance to the Philippines, while also examining the broader geopolitical and domestic factors that shaped these relationships.

Main Viewpoints

• Geopolitical and Domestic Motivations: The Duterte administration sought to improve relations with China due to both geopolitical circumstances and domestic needs. China's rise in Southeast Asia influenced the Philippines' foreign policy, particularly its relationship with the United States.
• Economic Interests: Economic cooperation with China, especially through the Belt and Road Initiative, has been a key driver of the bilateral relationship. The Philippines received significant investment and loan commitments, which supported its "Build! Build! Build!" (BBB) infrastructure program.
• Security Assistance: China has provided military aid and technology to the Philippines, particularly in counterterrorism and surveillance. However, this assistance is not without controversy, as it raises concerns about national security and the potential for Chinese influence.
• Strategic Infrastructure Projects: China's involvement in strategic infrastructure, such as telecommunications and airports, has been a point of contention. These projects are seen as potentially compromising Philippine sovereignty and security.
• South China Sea Disputes: The maritime disputes in the South China Sea remain a major source of tension and distrust between the two countries. Despite some cooperation mechanisms, the unresolved nature of these disputes continues to affect the overall relationship.
• Public Perception and Skepticism: While the Duterte administration pursued closer ties with China for economic benefits, public skepticism and concern about China's intentions persist, particularly in the context of security and sovereignty.

Key Information

2.1. Prominent Actors

• Philippines: The President is the chief architect of foreign policy, with a focus on strengthening national security and economic ties with China.
• China: Key institutions involved in shaping and implementing security policies include the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Central Military Commission, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), and the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines.
• Policy Coordination: The Philippines has a more decentralized system of governance, allowing for greater inter-agency collaboration, whereas China's centralized system enables tighter coordination between key actors.

2.2. Frameworks and Factors for Accepting Chinese Security Assistance

• The Philippines' acceptance of Chinese security assistance is driven by economic needs and the desire to strengthen bilateral relations.
• Unlike the US, China's security partnership with the Philippines is based on cooperation and mutual trust rather than potential threats.
• The 2004 MoU on defense cooperation and subsequent military aid agreements laid the groundwork for security collaboration.

2.3. Objectives of Chinese Security Assistance

• China's security assistance aims to enhance the Philippines' defense capabilities and align with its broader foreign policy goals in Southeast Asia.
• The assistance includes counterterrorism support, technology transfers, and funding for the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP).
• China's support is often tied to its economic investments, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative.

2.4. Extent of Chinese Security Assistance

• Chinese security assistance has been limited in scope, with most contributions focused on counterterrorism and surveillance.
• The Philippines' low military expenditure among ASEAN countries has made it more receptive to Chinese security support.
• The assistance is explicitly linked to economic investments and includes four critical areas: counterterrorism, peace and order, strategic industries, and maritime disputes resolution.

3. Counterterrorism Initiatives

• China provided significant military aid, including small firearms, fast boats, and advanced weaponry, to support the Philippines' counterterrorism efforts.
• These contributions were particularly notable during the 2017 Marawi siege, where China's support was praised by President Duterte.
• However, there are concerns about the interoperability of Chinese equipment with the Philippines' existing military systems.

4. Safe Philippines Project

• China's Safe Philippines project involves the installation of surveillance systems, including CCTV cameras, aimed at improving public safety and security.
• The project has raised concerns about data privacy and the potential for Chinese surveillance technology to be used for authoritarian purposes.
• The project faced delays due to the pandemic and has not yet been fully implemented.

5. Strategic Infrastructure Projects

• China's involvement in strategic infrastructure, such as telecommunications and airports, has been a point of contention.
• Projects like the DITO Telecommunity and the Sangley Airport have been criticized for potential security risks and sovereignty concerns.
• The Philippines has expressed resistance to allowing Chinese companies to manage key strategic assets, such as former US naval bases.

6. South China Sea Collaborations

• The South China Sea disputes remain a major source of tension, affecting the broader bilateral relationship.
• The Bilateral Consultative Mechanism (BCM) allows for limited cooperation on political security, fisheries, and environmental issues.
• The unresolved Code of Conduct (COC) negotiations continues to be a catalyst for uncertainty and potential conflict in the region.

7. Feasibility and Future Trajectory

• The Philippines and China have shown flexibility in economic relations, but security cooperation remains constrained by mistrust and geopolitical competition.
• The future trajectory of their security relationship is uncertain, with the potential for deeper cooperation but also the risk of renewed tensions.
• The Duterte administration's approach to China has been characterized by a pragmatic balance between economic benefits and security concerns.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while China has emerged as an important economic partner for the Philippines, its role in security assistance remains a double-edged sword. The Philippines continues to seek security partnerships beyond the US, but the ambiguity of China's intentions and the unresolved South China Sea disputes cast a shadow over the relationship. The Duterte administration's strategic approach has been to leverage China's economic and security support while maintaining a cautious stance on issues of sovereignty and national security.