2012年-世界发展银行全球_Public_Infrastructure_Trends_and_Gaps_in_Pakistan_49页_2mb

Summary of Public Infrastructure Trends and Gaps in Pakistan

Core Content

This paper, authored by Norman Loayza and Tomoko Wada, examines the state of public infrastructure in Pakistan and compares it with other developing countries. It highlights the importance of balancing 'hardware' and 'software' investments in infrastructure to support sustainable economic growth and improved social welfare.

Main Points

• Underinvestment in Infrastructure: Pakistan's infrastructure investment rate is among the lowest globally, which limits its ability to achieve higher economic growth. The paper argues that while 'software' investments (such as regulatory reforms and efficiency improvements) are important, they are not a substitute for 'hardware' investments.

• Need for Balanced Approach: The paper advocates for a balanced strategy that combines both hardware and software investments. It points out that the Framework for Economic Growth (FEG) underplays the need for continued infrastructure investment and calls for a more comprehensive assessment of infrastructure gaps.

• Infrastructure Gaps: Pakistan lags behind its peers in most infrastructure sectors, with notable exceptions in irrigation. The paper uses a set of nine comparator countries to benchmark Pakistan's performance, including Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Egypt, Turkey, Brazil, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia.

• Key Sectors Analyzed:

  • Transportation: Pakistan has a low density of paved roads, poor quality of railroads and airports, and only acceptable seaport quality. It ranks lowest in total road length.
  • Telecommunications: Pakistan's fixed telephone density is low, but it has a growing mobile and internet sector. It lags behind countries in other regions but outperforms its South Asian neighbors.
  • Electricity: Pakistan has low electricity generating capacity and high power losses. Its access to electricity is among the lowest in the comparator group.
  • Water and Sanitation: Access to improved water and sanitation is below the average of comparator countries, with only irrigation showing strong performance.

• Historical Trends: Infrastructure in Pakistan has improved slowly over the last 50 years. While some sectors like telecommunications and irrigation have shown recent progress, others like transport and electricity remain stagnant or regressive. Pakistan's GDP per capita growth has been weak, contributing to the slow pace of infrastructure development.

• Projected Improvements: Using econometric models, the paper projects that Pakistan's infrastructure improvements will be slower than those of its comparator countries. For example, Pakistan is expected to increase paved road density by only 1.7% over the next five years, while India is projected to increase by 5%. The paper emphasizes that future infrastructure development is closely tied to GDP growth, and Pakistan's expected growth rates are significantly lower than those of its neighbors.

• Policy Recommendations:

  • Increase public investment in infrastructure to at least 2% of GDP to recover the average rate from the previous decade.
  • Encourage private sector participation, especially in sectors like electricity, ports, and railroads, to improve efficiency and quality.
  • Aim for a total infrastructure investment of about 4.5% of GDP over the next 3-5 years to achieve sustained growth and reduce poverty.

Key Findings

• Slow Progress: Pakistan's infrastructure development has been slower compared to similar countries, especially in transportation, electricity, and telecommunications.
• Low Investment Rates: Public investment in infrastructure is unsustainable and needs to be increased.
• Private Sector Role: A stronger role of the private sector in both administration and funding is essential for improving infrastructure quality.
• GDP Growth Correlation: Infrastructure improvements are closely linked to GDP growth, and Pakistan's expected growth rates are lower than those of its neighbors, leading to slower infrastructure development.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that Pakistan needs to significantly increase its infrastructure investment to match the development levels of other countries. A balanced approach that includes both 'hardware' and 'software' investments is necessary, with a particular emphasis on increasing public investment and involving the private sector more effectively. The projected infrastructure improvements are lower than those of most comparator countries due to the country's weak economic growth, which underscores the urgency of implementing these recommendations to support long-term growth and development.