Korn_Ferry-未来的工作——全球人才荟萃（英文）-2019.2-52页_7mb

FUTURE OF WORK: Summary

Core Content

The FUTURE OF WORK report highlights an imminent global talent crunch, a skilled labor shortage that could cost nations trillions of dollars in unrealized annual revenues by 2030. This crisis affects both developed and developing economies and is driven by demographic shifts, tightening immigration policies, and mismatch between technological advancements and workforce skills.

Key Findings

• Global Talent Deficit by 2030:

  • A total of 85.2 million workers will be in short supply.
  • This will lead to $8.452 trillion in unrealized revenue, equivalent to the combined GDP of Germany and Japan.
  • India is the only country expected to have a skilled-labor surplus of around 245.3 million workers by 2030.

• Sector-Wise Impact:

  • Financial and Business Services:

    • A 10.7 million worker shortage by 2030, leading to $1.313 trillion in unrealized output.
    • The United States will be the biggest loser, missing out on $435.69 billion, or 1.5% of its economy.
    • India will be the only country with a surplus of highly skilled workers in this sector.

  • Technology, Media, and Telecommunications (TMT):

    • A 4.3 million worker shortage by 2030, causing $449.70 billion in unrealized output.
    • The United States is projected to lose $162.25 billion due to TMT labor shortages, more than a third of the total unrealized output.
    • India is expected to have a 1.3 million Level A worker surplus, potentially challenging the dominance of U.S. tech hubs.

  • Manufacturing:

    • A 7.9 million worker shortage by 2030, leading to $607.14 billion in unrealized output.
    • Japan will suffer the most, with $194.61 billion in lost revenue due to severe labor shortages.
    • India will again be the only country with a surplus of Level A workers in manufacturing, reaching 2.4 million by 2030.

Regional Insights

• The Americas:

  • United States faces a 23.9 million worker shortage by 2030, leading to $2.307 trillion in unrealized output.
  • Brazil and Mexico are also expected to experience significant labor shortages, especially in the financial and business services sector.

• Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA):

  • United Kingdom and Germany will struggle with skilled-talent shortages, with the UK facing a skills deficit of 2.6 million by 2030.
  • Japan and South Africa are among the countries with the most acute labor shortages in the manufacturing sector.

• Asia Pacific:

  • China and Russia will initially have surpluses in manufacturing and financial services, but both will face deficits by 2030.
  • India remains the only country with a positive outlook in terms of skilled labor supply across all sectors.

Critical Issues

• The mismatch between technological progress (e.g., automation, AI, robotics) and workforce skills is a major concern.
• Productivity gains from technology may not materialize without a sufficient supply of highly skilled workers.
• Small economies like Hong Kong and Singapore are particularly vulnerable, with 12% and 6% of their economies at risk of being lost due to labor shortages.

Call to Action

• Governments and organizations must prioritize talent strategy, including education, training, and upskilling.
• India is positioned to become a key player in the global talent market due to its large working-age population and government-led skill development programs.
• Leaders must act now to avoid economic consequences, as the talent crunch is accelerating and will impact long-term growth.

Conclusion

The report underscores that the global talent crunch is a real and pressing issue, with significant implications for economic growth, sector performance, and national competitiveness. While India is the only country expected to benefit from a surplus, the rest of the world must prepare for major labor shortages and take urgent steps to address them. Failure to do so may result in lost revenue, reduced innovation, and a decline in global influence.