2018年-查塔姆研究所_Green_Revolutions_for_Africa_36页_298kb

Summary of "Green Revolutions for Africa" (AFP 2011/01)

Core Content

This document explores the possibility of a "Green Revolution" for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), drawing lessons from Asia's historical success in agricultural transformation. It highlights the need for a science-based, smallholder-focused approach to increase farm productivity and address food insecurity.

Main Views

• Agriculture as a Key Sector: Agriculture is the primary source of income for over 60% of SSA's population and three-quarters of its poor. It remains a crucial driver for shared economic growth and employment in the region.
• Performance Gap: Between 1967 and 2007, farm output per person in SSA fell by 25%, while in South and East Asia it doubled and tripled, respectively. This was largely due to the adoption of better crop varieties, water control, and fertilizers.
• Challenges in SSA: Despite these challenges, there are renewed hopes for agricultural growth in Africa. Since 2000, farm output trends have improved, and some countries have increased public spending on agriculture and initiated programs like the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) and the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA).

Key Information

Three Core Challenges

1. Needs:

   • Hunger and malnutrition persist despite a significant increase in food imports.
   • SSA's population has almost quintupled since 1950, and is projected to double in the next 40 years.
   • The region needs to significantly increase food production to meet these demands.

2. Yields:

   • Cereal yields in SSA have not doubled over the past 60 years, while they have in South and East Asia.
   • Fertilizer use in SSA is far below that of Asia, with only 10 kg of main soil nutrients added per hectare in 2008, compared to 134 kg in South Asia.

3. Depletion:

   • Soil quality has deteriorated due to over-cultivation, erosion, and deforestation.
   • In 2002–03, 40% of farmland in SSA was losing over 60 kg of main nutrients per hectare annually.

Institutional and Technological Needs

• Technological Progress:

  • Asia's Green Revolution focused on irrigated wheat and rice, while SSA's food staples are more varied and often rain-fed.
  • There is a need for improved crop varieties, better soil and water management, and access to fertilizers.
  • Organic farming and low-input (LEI) methods have shown yield gains but are limited by accessibility, affordability, and the need for additional land and labor.

• Recent Developments:

  • Breeding programs have developed drought-tolerant maize, NERICA rice, and new cassava varieties.
  • There are also notable successes in improving input delivery and crop yields, though uptake of some innovations remains slow.

• Institutional Change:

  • Effective institutions are essential for the diffusion of agricultural innovations.
  • This includes better functioning markets, improved land rights, and support for collective action.
  • The state still plays a vital role in regulating markets, facilitating access to goods and services, and diffusing knowledge in areas where private-sector provision is limited.

• Public Support:

  • Public investment in agricultural research, infrastructure, and market development is critical.
  • Many African governments and donors have pledged support, but funding remains insufficient.

• Agricultural Strategies:

  • Two main strategies are considered: high external input (HEI) and low external input (LEI).
  • HEI involves modern plant breeding and inorganic fertilizers, while LEI includes organic farming and traditional methods.
  • Both require adaptation to local agro-ecologies and consideration of the full range of environmental and economic factors.

Conclusion

The document concludes that while there are challenges, sub-Saharan Africa has the potential to follow a similar path to Asia's Green Revolution. This requires a combination of technological innovation, institutional reform, and increased public investment. The success of such efforts will depend on addressing the unique conditions of SSA's diverse agro-ecological zones and ensuring that smallholder farmers have access to the resources and knowledge needed to improve productivity and food security.