20240802-和合期货-生猪月报（2024年08月）_8月消费由弱转强_生猪供需形势或好转_换月后主力仍有_10页_1mb

Pig Market Monthly Report: August 2024
Author: Han Lulu

Market Review:
Based on current data and analysis, the July 2024 pig market exhibited an "atypical" over-optimistic price trend, driven primarily by supply shortages.

• Supply Factors: Sow output declined steadily since May, compounded by increased rainfall, disease risks, and reduced group pig enterprises’ willingness to release pigs.
• Demand Factors: While consumption remains weak due to high temperatures altering dietary habits during the "dog days," consumption is projected to strengthen in August—especially ahead of the September school season.

Key Indicators (July 2024):

• Live pork prices reached a record high, with the domestic benchmark price breaking into the "9 yuan/kg era."
• Sow inventory recovery has brought the national herd count closer to normal levels.
• Feed costs (corn and soybean meal) have seen significant declines, boosting profitability for pig farmers.

Outlook for August 2024:
While the near-term contract LH2409 trades near its all-time high, the fundamentals for longer-dated contracts remain favorable. The combination of reduced supply (due to the transition in pig production cycles) and improving demand prospects supports the view for further upside in August. Risk factors include potential shifts in production schedules and uncertainties in consumption trends.

Disclaimer:
This report summarizes key developments and views. Market trends are subject to change, and this analysis does not constitute investment advice.