亚开行-印尼的财政能力和负担分担计划：处理新冠肺炎的新视角（英）-2023.7-18页_406kb

Summary of Indonesia's Fiscal Capacity and Burden-Sharing Scheme During COVID-19

This working paper analyzes Indonesia's response to the COVID-19 pandemic through a burden-sharing scheme involving the central bank. It challenges the traditional household budget analogy, arguing that fiscal deficits are not necessarily indicative of overspending, as the government can finance spending via central bank monetization without imposing long-term burdens. The scheme, which includes central bank purchases of government bonds, aims to stimulate economic recovery by boosting consumption and private revenue, though it raises concerns about external debt sustainability, particularly from high proportions of foreign-currency-denominated liabilities.

Key findings indicate that while the burden-sharing scheme can enhance economic resilience by avoiding traditional borrowing constraints, it must address risks such as inflation and exchange rate volatility. The paper emphasizes that Indonesia's relatively low government debt ratio allows for effective use of such schemes, potentially setting a precedent for future crises. Overall, burden-sharing facilitates faster fiscal stimulus and recovery, underpinned by positive market responses, but careful management is needed to mitigate macroeconomic instability.